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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:26 pm  |  Posted from: Australia
  

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Sell The Farm – or Oasis

This idea has been around for more than a decade and is now resurfacing under Trump and his unhinged advisors – the idea is to give part of Sinai to the Gazan killers/corrupts/incompetents to get them to calm down and basically buy them off. Given their 40 year achievement record they will probably stuff up this opportunity as well or steal the proceeds.

The idea can take many forms from leasing (but they will never leave) right through to transfer of sovereignty. The need to do something may be pushed by the collapse of housing in infrastructure in Gaza - Gaza seems to be facing a crisis. My view is that most of the damage has been self inflicted in a round about way and that the big money from the UN (mainly funded by the US and not a penny given by Egypt) has been stolen and that the old bad management and theft will probably continue wherever they live until they get rid of the 10,000 or so creatures who control them on dictatorial/police state/extreme muslim lines.

The PR problems Sisi had with the giving away the islands might mean he will need to manage this give away with all his skill – then multiply it 5 times and don’t listen to his barely sentient Foreign Minister. He will also need to explain to the people of Egypt this second giveaway and why Hamas was a horrid enemy for 5 years, friends of the Brotherhood, yet now it to get this big new present from Egypt. Difficult.

A clever US negotiator would hold out the carrot of a possible Nobel Peace Prize.

No one seems to know what the Bear wants out of all this.

The Saudi's might like it if Gaza cuts all ties with Iran - whatever those (exaggerated) ties are.

Sisi seemingly rejected this idea 8 months ago but money talks and the Saudi’s are sick of him and prepared to apply pressure. http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/23231.aspx

The sea gas potential off Sinai might also be a problem because Egypt wouldn't want to give those away and I’m not sure where the gas pipeline from Israel’s Leviathan field is coming into Egypt from – yes Egypt has signed a $US18 (?) billion gas supply deal with the people they call horrible Jews. Egypt wouldn't want that line going through Hamas territory.

I imagine it will come down to what is in the deal and how much cash Egypt gets – say $US10 billion (payable into the Army personal account just as with the $US20-30 billion from Saudi and the Gulf 4 years ago – current location not known and no accounts ever published) and how much Saudi subsidizes it.

Doing a deal with Hamas will probably be a waste of time because they will welsh on it after 5 years.

There is some irony in this – technically Gaza is part of Egypt – they occupied it in the first of their many unsuccessful wars with Israel – so instead maybe they should go to war with Hamas and seize it back.

Its interesting that most newspapers in the world have covered this option over a long time but the center of civilization, Cairo, barely at all. You would thing that PR 101 is to feed it out slowly to gauge response but what would I know when 300 Majors and Colonels know all there is to know about Egyptian opinion and media 'management' – as they said they did with the island debacle.

Kushner is pushing this idea without any education, training or work experience in diplomacy and the US diplomatic/foreign policy establishment thinks him an idiot (his father was disbarred as a lawyer and jailed for 2 years for witness tampering, illegal campaign contributions and tax evasion and was a Democrat supporter maybe its a family that backs a different horse in each race. Kushner's father also hired a prostitute to seduce his hated brother in law - had the sex videoed and then presented the tape to his sister to force the divorce/settle the financial division - a moral billionaire family) https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/06/25/ku ... ine-trump/

The whole story could just be speculation and Trump’s attention span is so short he may move unpredictably onto something sexier at any moment. http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/ha ... 1521237499

https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conf ... nai-515838
https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Gaza- ... yst-482137
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -relevance


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:20 pm  |  Posted from: United Kingdom
  

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Any move by the regime to cede 1 sq mtr of unarguably (unlike the islands) Egyptian land would see a civilian uprising which no level of control by the authorities would forestall.

A complete non-starter.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:05 am  |  Posted from: Australia
  

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Agree but its an idea that has been around for ages and won't go away. If the Saudi's are now on board it gives it greater power. Kushner seems to be pushing it and Trump is a chap who is harsh on 'allies' who the US has funded for ages who won't cough up/do what they are told. I think Egypt could fall into that category and there are no liberals in the west who will take Egypt's side so on this matter so you might have the left agreeing with the right - one off.

Who knows - maybe an offer of $US40 billion would do the job before Egypt, with its current sovereign debt of $US100 billion, falls into an outside loo. Maybe a PR selling of it as a lease would avoid the Egyptian public realizing what it really was.

Unlike the last time with the Saudi/UAE $US30 billion lets hope any money doesn't go into Armed Forces Plc A/c Panama but into the Consolidated Revenue of Egypt - where it might be slightly safer.


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