Brexit bedfellows

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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Zooropa » Fri May 20, 2016 12:27 am

For what its worth and im not sure its worth anything:

For all my Eurosceptic rhetoric I believe the vote in the referendum will be 60-40 in favour of remain.

Creatures of habit and all that, and also, I believe the Remain side are correct to calculate that they can scare enough people, however bonkers the threats are into voting to remain.

The only plus on the leave side is that people wanting change are more motivated to get out and vote and given that voter turn out is very poor in this country (in my opinion) there is a ripe field to sow for the Leave side.

That may give them a squeak of a chance.
Last edited by Zooropa on Fri May 20, 2016 12:48 am, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Zooropa » Fri May 20, 2016 12:47 am

Ooops back of the "cue"

Oh dear, my spelling still needs much work.

Queue dammit!

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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by carrie » Fri May 20, 2016 5:01 am

Maybe someone can explain, David Cameron was unhappy with the EU he went and re-negotiated terms, well some of them and came back announcing a great victory. Now he could recommend staying in.
What did he re-negotiate and what was the result of that re-negotiation that a change in thinking was in order?

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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by newcastle » Fri May 20, 2016 7:02 am

carrie wrote:Maybe someone can explain, David Cameron was unhappy with the EU he went and re-negotiated terms, well some of them and came back announcing a great victory. Now he could recommend staying in.
What did he re-negotiate and what was the result of that re-negotiation that a change in thinking was in order?
He was rehearsing for his post-referendum career as an actor.

Apparently he has secured the role of Neville Chamberlain in a remake of "Peace in Our Time".

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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by newcastle » Fri May 20, 2016 7:07 am

Zooropa wrote:For what its worth and im not sure its worth anything:

For all my Eurosceptic rhetoric I believe the vote in the referendum will be 60-40 in favour of remain.

Creatures of habit and all that, and also, I believe the Remain side are correct to calculate that they can scare enough people, however bonkers the threats are into voting to remain.

The only plus on the leave side is that people wanting change are more motivated to get out and vote and given that voter turn out is very poor in this country (in my opinion) there is a ripe field to sow for the Leave side.

That may give them a squeak of a chance.
"A damn close-run thing".........Wellington.

Admittedly referring to Waterloo rather than Brussells.....but near enough. :wi

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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Horus » Fri May 20, 2016 10:47 am

One of the things he secured Carrie was an opt out from a certain proposal in the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) negotiations that are taking so long to conclude with the EU and one of the real reasons that Obama wishes us to remain as we would be also be subjected to the terms of the deal.

This trade deal is aimed at reducing regulatory barriers to trade for big business, things like food safety law, environmental legislation, banking regulations and the sovereign powers of individual nations. This may sound good on the surface until you realise that one of its main aims is to open up Europe's Public Health, Education, & Water Services to US companies which in essence COULD lead to the NHS being privatised although the European Commission has claimed that public services will be kept out of TTIP, but as these deals are so secretive does anyone really trust them?

TTIP’s biggest threat to society is its inherent assault on democracy. One of the main aims of TTIP is the introduction of Investor-State Dispute Settlements (ISDS), which allow companies to sue governments if those governments’ policies cause a loss of profits. In effect it means unelected transnational corporations can dictate the policies of democratically elected governments.
I don't wish to go down the smoking debate route, but here is an example of what it could mean. Take the current UK stance on smoking with the implementation of plain packaging for cigarettes now being sold in the UK coming into force today. Under the TTIP deal it COULD give the Tobacco industries grounds to sue governments as in the current example of Phillip Morris taking legal action in Australia for damages to its business after they imposed a similar packaging ban.

TTIP’s ‘regulatory convergence’ agenda will seek to bring EU standards on food safety and the environment closer to those of the US even though their regulations are less strict than the EU. Over 70% of US processed food contains GM modified products, whereas there is virtually zero allowed in EU foods, obviously companies such as Mansanto would love the right to corner this market within Europe as they are the biggest players in GM foods.

The US has laxer restrictions on the use of pesticides, they also use growth hormones in beef production which are restricted in Europe due to links to cancer. US farmers have tried to have these restrictions lifted repeatedly in the past through the World Trade Organisation and it is likely that they will use TTIP to do so again.

Our regulations are far tougher on potentially toxic substances, within Europe a company has to prove a substance is safe before it can be used; the opposite is true in the US where any substance can be used until it is proven unsafe. The US currently bans 12 substances from being used in cosmetics, whereas the EU currently bans 1,200 substances from being used.

On the flip side our banking regulations had to be toughened up after the last fiasco and so did the US even though their banks were more regulated than ours, TTIP could see our banks attempting to once again water those regulations down again and handing power back to the bankers.

We had the ACTA (the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement) back in 2012 which was thrown out by a massive majority in the European Parliament after a huge public backlash against of what was rightly seen as an attack on individual privacy which included internet service providers being required to monitor people’s online activity. Some form of this could creep back in by the backdoor under an easing of data privacy laws. It could also lead to a restriction of public access to pharmaceutical companies’ clinical trials which are currently open to scrutiny.

It may also lead to job losses as they switch to the US where labour standards and trade union rights are lower. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the US, Canada and Mexico caused the loss of one million US jobs over 12 years, instead of creating more.

I have said before and will say it again, when Obama tells us we should stay in the EU he is speaking from an American standpoint and that is where his interests lie, not with the UK. On this one agreement alone (TTIP) he would want to include the UK within that deal mainly because the negotiations will require that every nation state (all 28 of them) has to consider everyone else's position in order to get an agreement and therefore water down their own objections. With the UK out of that equation he will gain a lot less clout for US multinationals and his deal will have less influence unless he can convince the UK to agree to the same terms which he knows we will not if we decide to leave the EU. David Cameron came away from the last negotiations with the EU with lots of promises, none of which is binding on them in any way. All of our conditions have to be agreed by the other 27 members before they are binding and I just cannot see that happening. Should we get those conditions agreed it will open the floodgates for other countries making their own demands and the EU grey suits will not allow that to happen. The other likelihood is that once we have given a 'remain' vote mainly because the fear factor will kick in, then the bureaucracy in Brussels will take that as a green light to proceed as normal and nothing will have changed.
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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Zooropa » Fri May 20, 2016 10:56 am

Is anybody with a brain surprised that what Cameron came back with would fit on an atom?

When people like him and Yvette cooper and other experienced current and previous cabinet ministers said that regardless of what was negotiated they would campaign to remain why is anyone surprised that Cameron secured nowt?

As I said in a previous post, that's what you get when you state your position before the negotiation begins.

Nothing.

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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Zooropa » Fri May 20, 2016 10:59 am

newcastle wrote:
Zooropa wrote:For what its worth and im not sure its worth anything:

For all my Eurosceptic rhetoric I believe the vote in the referendum will be 60-40 in favour of remain.

Creatures of habit and all that, and also, I believe the Remain side are correct to calculate that they can scare enough people, however bonkers the threats are into voting to remain.

The only plus on the leave side is that people wanting change are more motivated to get out and vote and given that voter turn out is very poor in this country (in my opinion) there is a ripe field to sow for the Leave side.

That may give them a squeak of a chance.
"A damn close-run thing".........Wellington.

Admittedly referring to Waterloo rather than Brussells.....but near enough. :wi
Yes quite, and I don't know what Cameron does to the enemy but he frightens the life out of me!

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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Zooropa » Fri May 20, 2016 11:05 am

Horus wrote:The problem with all of this is that both sides tell half truths and certainly from my perspective here in the UK the 'remain' camp seem to be getting more and more desperate to scare everyone into staying in. Neither side actually give any pros and cons detailing the benefit of either choice and we certainly see some strange long term predictions from the remain camp. Even good old Boris's remark was taken out of context as he was stating his opinion that several people had tried to create a greater Europe from the Roman Empire, Napoleon and even Hitler and that none of them had succeeded. There is a theory that says that once anyone brings Hitler into a debate then the debate has run its course, although why mentioning Hitler in this context of people who tried to rule Europe should be deemed so offensive is a mystery to me. The latest was Mark Carney from the Bank of England giving his predictions, the problem with all of these esteemed groups from the CBI, the IMF, G20 and the bankers is that all of these organisations also predicted doom and gloom previously if we did not join the Euro or stay in the ERM and quite the reverse happened.

President Obama speaks from what is best for America and not what may be best for the UK, he too made the gross mistake in saying that Europe has been free from war due to the EU and failed to mention the real reason that it was NATO that had kept the peace. Donald Trump when asked if the UK would as Obama stated be at the back of the queue for any trade deal gave his reply was that it would not be the case if he were to be elected. When you consider that none of these organisation could predict the disaster of 2008 and George Osbourne himself has been unable to get any of his own forecasts correct, yet we are expected to take him on his word as to what would happen in the future should we leave the EU. Is it any wonder that most people are confused by all this rhetoric and such long term predictions that quite honestly no one can really say what will happen or have happened in 15 years time and at my age I have yet to see any chancellor get it right.

So one prediction I think we can make with reasonable certainty is that it will be very close, but with a last minute surge in support to stay in as people suppress their instinct to get out of Europe due to the fear campaign being run at the moment and the lack of any rationally argued debate for in or out. So like the Scottish Referendum the people will vote to stay in out of fear of the unknown, but like that particular referendum I doubt it will settle the future calls to leave and it will only take one example of the EU working to our detriment, say unbridled immigration and it will start all over again.
Peace in Europe, yes, fascinating how Kossovo always seems to be air brushed out of history when this claim is made.

Did I dream up that conflict because it looked suspiciously un peaceful to me, with a large portion of ethnic cleansing thrown in for good measure.

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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Horus » Fri May 20, 2016 11:15 am

I have never understood why he took such a weak negotiating stance. Surely he would have been far better saying that he would hold a referendum and then if he got a Brexit vote he would then come back and negotiate new terms and if these were unacceptable then the UK would leave at a time that suited us and after we had made alternative trade deals and had them in place. OK I am aware that this contravenes current EU rules, but who cares, they are hardly likely to throw us out earlier than necessary are they? Another huge bargaining chip we have is our EU contributions, should we decide to leave it would leave a large financial hole that the other countries would need to fill immediately. As part of successful renegotiations of our new trading terms we could offer a slow reduction in our contributions, phasing them down over several years thus minimising the financial shock for the other countries remaining.
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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Zooropa » Fri May 20, 2016 11:22 am

People have spoken of the Leave camp's claims.

What about the Remain side?

Maths was never my strong suit and I cant understand how the UK who, if my memory is correct are second only to Germany as a contributor to the EU coffers get back £10 for every £1 we put in as claimed by the Remain campaign.

Where is this money coming from?

How can one of the biggest contributors get back 9 times what they have put in when most member states appear to be getting out more than they put in.

Does the EU have a money tree orchard?

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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Zooropa » Fri May 20, 2016 11:27 am

Or perhaps we send someone called Jack over every month to come back with some magic beans?

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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Zooropa » Fri May 20, 2016 11:30 am

Horus wrote:I have never understood why he took such a weak negotiating stance. Surely he would have been far better saying that he would hold a referendum and then if he got a Brexit vote he would then come back and negotiate new terms and if these were unacceptable then the UK would leave at a time that suited us and after we had made alternative trade deals and had them in place. OK I am aware that this contravenes current EU rules, but who cares, they are hardly likely to throw us out earlier than necessary are they? Another huge bargaining chip we have is our EU contributions, should we decide to leave it would leave a large financial hole that the other countries would need to fill immediately. As part of successful renegotiations of our new trading terms we could offer a slow reduction in our contributions, phasing them down over several years thus minimising the financial shock for the other countries remaining.
This strategy relies on people actually being clever enough to find their arse with their hands.

A lifetime spent in Daddy's summer retreat and Pimms and lemonade cocktail parties at Penelope's mansion are not useful life experiences to take into a political renegotiation.

Cripes chaps, can we have a better deal ok ya?

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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Horus » Fri May 20, 2016 11:56 am

Does the EU have a money tree orchard?
No! the EU has no money of its own, it is just our own money given back (or a smaller part of it) and then dressed up as coming from some sort of philanthropic organisation as in "Built with the aid of funds provided by the EU". If you look at the whole thing logically, then how can the EU support such gross bureaucracy and switch its operations between Brussels and Strasbourg, dole out such largess to all members, most of whom contribute very little in comparison to Germany, UK & France. The EU itself generates no revenue so cannot turn a profit, all it does is to redistribute our money and the only thing it actually does is to facilitate free trade and that is exactly what we elected to join, ergo a free trading union. It was never a political union other that in the eyes of certain people who had a grand dream for Europe and have steadily imposed it by stealth, it is this incessant creeping unification and central rule that is annoying most people, it is not what we signed up for.
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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Who2 » Fri May 20, 2016 12:20 pm

So staying in the EU is all about Money is it...?
Well then sell your souls to the devil for a 'mess of pottage ....8)
Ps: I suppose one day people might just realise 'life is not just about financial gain.
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Re: Brexit bedfellows

Post by Horus » Fri May 20, 2016 3:10 pm

So staying in the EU is all about Money is it...?
In many cases it is, everything we are being told is how detrimental leaving will be for the UK's economy. The pound sterling weakened due to speculation regarding the result, however today we see that it has already regained 50% of its previous loss, so what was the real reason behind the drop? Saying as we have not yet had the referendum then the money markets are either already discounting the effect of leaving the EU or are confident that the vote will be to remain. Alternatively it may well be that the original drop in the Pound was more likely due to a weakening UK economy rather than any fear of leaving the EU as we were led to believe. But I do agree with you Dr, there has to be more to it than just the fiscal side of leaving, what about accountable democracy, ruling ourselves and making our own laws and decisions that affect our way of life and not forgetting our national identity.
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