Rumours of our death are ill founded.

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Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by A-Four » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:29 pm

Since I last wrote on this forum, just over a week now, l have been studying the general form of this site, then after reading Subversion first statement under the heading Tiswas (General Discussions and Rants), l suddenly realised that indeed not only is there no laughter on this forum these days (as l wrote on Living In, last week under R. Sends heading of - Thank You.) but also there is no serious debate, and those that were such great contributors to such discussions, are no longer there, or should l say, do not contribute. Some will say, "Ah but A-Four, many are now on holiday." All I say to that is, well most of them still look in, as we can all see, but say nothing.

During this past week I have looked to see the last written work before these valued members have abruptly stopped commenting, to my suprise, l have detected a certain 'rottweiler' who seems to have a great knack of pissing people off, see if you can find the 'rottweiler', but then again, what do I know, - I am just one of the 'old guard', who is not part of the 'in' crowd.


The next seven days will prove to be Egypt's most important week of its whole modern history, the present power there, already knows who won the presidental election, and will be in close contact with Western powers as to how it can push farward its next move without causeing too much fuss in Europe and the U.S.A., while I expect the Brotherhood may be in close contact with it Near Eastern neighbours, Russia or dare I say it, even China, to prepare for support it may need in the near future at the United Nations.

The future of Egypt now stands on a knife edge, the present 'troubles' as I have always maintained, that is what they are up until now, may very quickly develop into a real revolution. The first immeadiate signs of this to be noticed by ex-pats in Luxor will be mobile phones cut off and 'lock-down', which will effect every city and town in Egypt.

I am amazed at the way Western Governments are not giving any imput to this most severe situation, and I can only hope that that this great country can come through this, and to the benefit of its 80,000,000 people. It would be interesting to hear comments from the very silent majority, who in the past have given such valued contribution to serious discussions, rather than the usual 'drop-of-a-hat' comment so much supplied by the so called 'in' crowd that frequent this organ on a daily basis.

P.S.- Almost forgot, would some one put a leash on the rottweiler should such a debate take place.



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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by DJKeefy » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:08 pm

It's always been the same A-Four since we first begun back in 2005, its slows right down during the summer months, even though like you say people still read the forum :)
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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by Hafiz » Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:07 am

A4 are you saying that the local view is that Sharif has won? The 'out-side' view is that Mursi has it - subject to protests on voting. Or have I misunderstood your third para?

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by A-Four » Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:11 am

Sorry Hafiz, I deliberatly did not make that clear, as I wanted to remain neutral in the discussion, however, since you now mention it, I can assure you I am no friend of what ever the NDP calls itself today. You only have to look at my posts up until the 'trouble' arrived, that when ex-pats were complaining about the then general problems in Luxor, on this site, I was making it quite clear that the average Egyptian, nationwide was finding it far more difficult. In fact you can see that 18 months ago, just before the 'troubles' started, I locked the door of my Luxor home for the last time, and then did a nation-wide tour of Egypt to say good-bye to my friends. By the time I had got to Cairo, it seemed to me that the whole country was at breaking point and revolution was just around the corner, that was the first week in January 2011 , the rest, as you know is history.

What I am trying to point out here Hafiz, is that who ever wins the presidental election, l see very serious trouble ahead, which may require international support, that is why l mention the U.N. It is my hope, and I am sure yours, that everything goes peacefully, but as each day passes, I become more fearful.

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by TonyC » Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:55 am

I suspect that there is not much debate on here about the crisis Egypt faces (apart from the holiday "retirees", of course) because the situation changes almost hourly, according to statements from "sources" and rumours in the media. Plenty of talk on the ground if not here! We wait with bated breath.

The only thing we can be sure of is that the generals staged a coup straight after the presidential polls closed on Sunday to grab power for themselves (I'm rather dismissive of the "only until a constitution" promise!). That was aimed at Mr Mursi winning. It matters far less if Mr Shafiq "wins" because he is their man.

What is less clear is why months after the parliamentary vote, the Mubarak-appointed judges suddenly decide the election was unconstitutional – two days before the presidential run-off. The whole parliament must be dismissed even though they admit that two-thirds of it was elected completely legally!

Today and tomorrow (if the presidential result is actually announced) are the crunch days. There may still be a deal – see
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=30121
but, like A-Four, I see trouble ahead. If Mr Shafiq scrapes through, will the other half of this divided nation actually say "Oh well ... let's go back to the old days"?

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by A-Four » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:40 am

I see the point you make above TonyC, with regards to the Judges, but Tony let me come to their defence here for a moment. I remember very well during my last month, while packing things away in Luxor, the Judges Syndicate both in Cairo and Alex were in almost open rebellion. Mubarak was trying to appoint new Judges who would push through his will, with the idea of his 'new modern' farward thinking, for example the new property tax, and other new 'taxes' that he was trying to push farward to appease the IMF.

By the time I had arrived in Cairo, I witnessed a huge demonstration outside the High Court at Sadat, the likes of which I had not seen in Cairo since the bread riots some two years earlier, where I estimated 10,000 people attended, though El Ahram put this figure at a few hundred. Never trusted that paper, even today.

In conclusion Tony, Mubarak withdrew his application, perhaps the last decent thing he did before the present troubles.

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by Subversion » Sat Jun 23, 2012 11:18 am

I'm a very solitary animal - I don't see myself as part of an "in-crowd" and certainly not part of the "Old -Guard" being a new member - the reason I don't tend to contribute to the heavy weight debates is because I don't consider myself informed enough! But I do read it - and I do learn from it! And as A4 points out I do miss the significant contributions that seem to be on the decline - hopefully those people are enjoying their holidays and will be back soon.

Likewise though I respect that I shouldn't depend on others to take time out to provide for my education so try and contribute as much as I can!

With regard to the current situation - the "Military Coup" is an affront to the people, no matter their individual persuasion and the West should be openly supporting the development of democratic process. The challenge is for all peoples moving from dictatorship to democracy, that they know what they don't want but they don't know what it is feasible to have and it is not understood that democracy does not ergo mean getting your own way.

No matter who wins, Egypt's government cannot in any immediate timescale, provide for the diverse needs and wants of its populus. My own feeling is that victory for whoever is a poison chalice. I think it is the case with most revolutions that a period of regression follows to regain stability - for the people, hopefully they will see that they have broken though the castle walls but still have some way to go before they control the castle!

SX

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by A-Four » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:15 pm

Well Subversion, to say that you are not 'informed enough', you seem to make of, what I consider, a couple of good comments.

Myslf, I have often wondered what is true democracy. Many would say that, that is exactly what Egypt along with stability has been so, for the 30 years. The stability has certainly been present, but at a price. As for who ever is the next president, or for that matter, who ever is control of the elected government, they will more than likley not be returned to office after five years. As we can see with the mess that is the European problem most political parties are reluctent to take power because, as in Britain, it will take at least seven years for its present financial mess to be cleared up, and perhaps with many Euro countries much longer, where the Central European Bank (ECB) holds most control. Britain and such countries as Egypt, it is the International Monetary Fund (IMF) who fills up the begging bowl, and at a high political price that no one ever blames on the IMF, it is always the political party that is in power.

Who ever gets into power in Egypt will certainly have to go to the IMF with a very large begging bowl, and will only be filled up providing very strikt rules are in place, in other words the people will suffer, and as we all know, the people have very short memories when it comes to politics.

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by Subversion » Sat Jun 23, 2012 1:53 pm

I'm a born cynic A4 and agree with you!

I tend to think that government has 2 basic forms - The Transparent Dictatorship - where there is no mistaking what the rules are! and the Let The Eat Cake Dictatorship - where you are fed a healthy diet of consumerism and fooled into thinking you have a say!

The most malevolent - a hybrid of the two - The Benign Dictatorship - the subjugation of the individual to honor the dictator's martyrdom - while the martyr eats cake and the people are left to rot.

It has been interesting this week to hear Aung San Suu Kyi and her thoughts on the future of Burma, alongside the situation in Egypt and the dire lack of positive outcome from the Rio summit on Global sustainability.

Naive as I am sure this sounds - I can't help thinking that countries like Egypt and Burma can lead on a new world order - they haven't lost their understanding of the relationship between our race and our home planet in the way much of the west has. They know how to grow potatoes, where as increasingly in the West our children don't even realise that is where fries come from!

I'm not anti-modernisation - the gun nor the book are not the issue - it's the people holding them.

All our cake eating has come at a price

Sx

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by TonyC » Sat Jun 23, 2012 2:26 pm

Well, after some hours locked into L4u while a disabled snail refused to move along the path to open a page, it looks as if I can say something (though the spinning symbol says that this page hasn't finished building yet ... oops, now it has stabilised!).

In reply to A-Four on the judges, my comments were not about Egypt's entire judicial system. I have no doubt that the Judges Syndicate, or union, is in favour of an independent judiciary. So am I. I query that "beautifully timed" decision by the Supreme Constitutional Court which, apparently, cannot be challenged. And why, when only one third of seats are in dispute, the entire parliament has to be thrown out.
With regard to the current situation - the "Military Coup" is an affront to the people, no matter their individual persuasion and the West should be openly supporting the development of democratic process. The challenge is for all peoples moving from dictatorship to democracy, that they know what they don't want but they don't know what it is feasible to have and it is not understood that democracy does not ergo mean getting your own way.
I fully agree with Subversion's first sentence there. The loftier thoughts of both her and A-Four on democracy and governance can wait for another day ... when the Egypt struggling for a freer society is not blocked at every turn by the generals or their supporters. Then it can find out what it is feasible to have and that not everyone can have their own way. At the moment, only the dictators can have their way.

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by Subversion » Sat Jun 23, 2012 2:56 pm

I fully agree with Subversion's first sentence there. The loftier thoughts of both her and A-Four on democracy and governance can wait for another day ... when the Egypt struggling for a freer society is not blocked at every turn by the generals or their supporters. Then it can find out what it is feasible to have and that not everyone can have their own way. At the moment, only the dictators can have their way.[/quote]

I humbly beg for leniency! I feel an intellectual battering heading my way and now remember why I don't get involved in all this political stuff! I do however relent that it is glib to talk about ideology and theoretical progression of human kind when people are facing a very real prospect of death in pursuit of basic human rights.

Engaging in these debates is wonderful for thinking through my "position statement" on various issues - I eat far too much cake these days - I need the mental exercise but please don't make me run a marathon for starters!

S x

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by A-Four » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:35 pm

I am not sure here what you mean by my 'loftier thought' TonyC, but l suspect you are perhaps refering to the reference of the IMF. If so, what l want to point out is that way back in January this year Egypt informed the world that it only had enough money to last until July, this being so, who ever gets into power will need to take the very large begging bowl to the IMF, and it is they not the government who will put strikt conditions on any loan, which will mean raising taxes, or better still brand new taxes upon Egypts people. It is the faceless people of the IMF who sents the interest rate, it is then left to the new government to set the task of doing the best for its people,...........democracy, what a joke.

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by shebs1964 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:43 pm

Power corrupts = democracy
Absolute power corrupts absolutely = dictatorship
Anarchy rules
Democracy, what a joke, sure, but at least we can change the idiots every so often.
I didn't say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by A-Four » Sat Jun 23, 2012 11:16 pm

Today there has been two brilliant lines of satire one from Hafiz, on another subject, and here from Shebs1964 above, sorry Hafiz, in my oppinion Shebs wins.

It all goes to show though, yes we can debate, and yes we can still have a laugh, prehaps some one should inform the so called 'in crowd', that this can be possible.

Its less than 24 hours now before we learn of Egypt's future, lets hope its to be the best for all Egypt's people.

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by HEPZIBAH » Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:13 am

A-Four wrote:
Its less than 24 hours now before we learn of Egypt's future, lets hope its to be the best for all Egypt's people.

Devils Advocate....
The best by who's definition? I, as I'm sure do we all, have my own thoughts, ideas and opinion on the subject but they may well not be what an Egyptian would agree with. Equally, I think that what the more liberal Egyptians believe is best for their country will almost certainly not be what the more concervative Islamists believe is best. So...what really is 'best' and who really decides it? :dv
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it is what you do with what happens to you.
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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by Subversion » Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:31 am

HEPZIBAH wrote:
A-Four wrote:
Its less than 24 hours now before we learn of Egypt's future, lets hope its to be the best for all Egypt's people.

Devils Advocate....
The best by who's definition? I, as I'm sure do we all, have my own thoughts, ideas and opinion on the subject but they may well not be what an Egyptian would agree with. Equally, I think that what the more liberal Egyptians believe is best for their country will almost certainly not be what the more concervative Islamists believe is best. So...what really is 'best' and who really decides it? :dv
And this is where Egypt will learn about the great illusion that is Democracy - though I agree with Sheb's comments.

The trouble is I can't think of one example where there is a complete consensus on what is best and it comes down to what can be gotten away with by the ruling party by fair means or foul...

Hang on we are talking about democracy not dictatorship aren't we,,,

Sx

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by shebs1964 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:36 am

Thats where democracy comes in. In a perfect world it allows the majority to say what is best. In thie imperfect world it allow the masses at least some say, even if only to say let some else have a go.
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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by HEPZIBAH » Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:38 am

Subversion wrote:
Hang on we are talking about democracy not dictatorship aren't we,,,

Sx
Democracy = an ideology seldom reached fully, and often abused, but worth striving for. Usually takes a long time to acheive a workable level.

Dictatorship = what you get when you don't strive hard enough for democracy.
Usually happens very quickly, whether any form of democracy has been in existance or not.
Image Experience is not what happens to you;
it is what you do with what happens to you.
-Aldous Huxley

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by Subversion » Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:45 am

shebs1964 wrote:Thats where democracy comes in. In a perfect world it allows the majority to say what is best. In thie imperfect world it allow the masses at least some say, even if only to say let some else have a go.
I do agree Shebs I would rather live in Britain that the "Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea" - there is much to extol about the virtue of democracy when countries do at least try to get it right!

But the majority saying what is best - isn't essentially what is best or what is right - and I think we are back to the point Hepzi was trying to make - oh I do love a good cyclical debate!

What does strike me as sad - its 12.45 on a Saturday night - how come we don't have a social life! This would be so muchmore pleasant round a table with some alcohol!

S x

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Re: Rumours of our death are ill founded.

Post by shebs1964 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:46 am

And thats the problem with revolution, people expect the democratic ideology not the reality. It took hundreds of years and many false starts for the UK to achieve the imperfect system we have. I agree we need to continue to strive to improve it and stop trying to tell everyone it will solve all their problems, it is the start not the end of the struggle.
I didn't say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you

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