Wheat self sufficiency for Egypt

[biosceptic]

I was reading this opinion piece on Egypt's wheat demand and production.
http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/05/2 ... -in-egypt/

I assume wheat in Egypt is irrigated, but how does the Government control in this sector work? Do the farmers buy their own seed? Do the have a choice on who thy sell to? I saw that Egypt can't store more than 4 months of wheat. Why aren't they building temporary bunkers (the have been used here for over thirty years) so wheat can be stored when it is cheaper.

Could they really reach wheat self sufficiency?

[LovelyLadyLux]

Don't know much directly about wheat production but I'd think that storing it for only 4 months isn't really very long.

[biosceptic]

from
http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/05/1 ... and-wheat/

Columnist Dr Mahmoud Emara addresses the issue of Egypt’s wheat cultivation and self-sufficiency that were brought up by President Mohamed Morsi last week.

“I do not know how President Morsi dared to announce, live on TV and without batting an eye, that our wheat production for this year is nine and a half tonnes. And then some claimed that in two or three years, we would be exporting wheat!” he exclaimed.

Dr Emara says he would have done things differently than the minister of supply, who the columnist says is not doing a proper job. He first would have banned importing wheat starting in February, so farmers would have a place to store their high-quality wheat, which is now being stored in open storage spaces, susceptible to rodents and bacteria.

Secondly, he would have prepared for the harvest by supplying the appropriate rag bags instead of the flimsy ones. He states that Egypt loses between 15% and 20% of its wheat production annually during transport and storage.

Thirdly, he would have waited until the end or half way through the harvest to determine the average wheat production for each feddan (175 square metres) of land. He states that according to recent reports by the Ministry of Agriculture, Egypt cultivates on average three million feddans for wheat production each year, and that the average of each feddan is 15 ardeb (150 kilograms). This means that Egypt produces on average 6,750,000 ardebs annually. Then 15% of it is lost in transport and storage, bringing the total around 5,750,000 ardebs.

Out of the produced wheat, around 3.5 million ardebs are the government’s supply, and the rest goes to the farmers.

Egypt imported 11 million tonnes out of its 15 million tonne consumption from July 2012 until April 2013. According to customs, the harbours contain 9.5 million tonnes of wheat. In addition, the country can only store four million tonnes in the allotted 362 storage spaces.

“Therefore, if the production is increased by 30-50%, where will the surplus be stored?” Dr Emara asks.

The columnist says that Morsi should have reconsidered his statements instead of depending on empty words, which are said for the sake of propaganda.

Dr Emara does agree with Morsi that Egypt can become a wheat exporter, but a number of things must be done in order to achieve self-sufficiency.

First, the cultivation research department needs to be backed up financially. Second, 50,000 feddans needs to be planted with high-quality wheat kernels in November 2013 to be able to produce the seeds needed for the extra three million feddans.

Third, these seeds need to be planted in the 2014-2015 cultivation season, to be harvested in June 2015. This will lead to self-sufficiency in bread, but five million tonnes will still be needed for other products.

The extra wheat production means that 250 cement storage spaces need to be built, as well as the implementation of mechanised cultivation. In addition, half a million feddans need to be allocated for the cultivation of corn (5.5 million tonnes of corn are imported annually) to be mixed with the wheat for producing bread.

The last element is the founding of an industrial area in Owaynat for the production of meat and leather. The area will be operated using a million pieces of cattle from the Nile Basin countries. So, Egypt can export and consume meat for EGP 30 per wholesale kilogram. This means that Egypt will not need to cultivate a million feddans of alfalfa, which will save water (each feddan of alfalfa consumes around 10,000 cubic metres of water).

The project will also fortify Egypt’s relations with the Nile Basin countries, and will achieve self-sufficiency in the frozen meats sector. With the cooperation of the Italians, the project will also allow Egypt to export leather.

“In short, this country has all the capabilities, resources and expertise, but poverty, hunger and backwardness will remain synonyms to the capability of our rulers, who are poor of mind,” Dr Emara concludes.

I am curious about the Government supply being about 2/3 of the wheat produced and the farmer gets the rest - is this some sort of Nationalised farming or is it some sort of share farming scheme where the government provides irrigation water, fertiliser and seed?

Does wheat get grown as far south as Luxor?

[Dusak]

I've seen grain crops growing in upper Egypt and I'm lead to believe that they receive no subsidies on fertilizers, they buy their own. As far as I'm aware they also buy their own seed. I was also lead to believe that they could keep or sell the crop as they wished. In my friends village there is a mill that is continually producing flour from the local harvests. Their grain is stored in a steel hundred gallon drum for up to a year, not only to feed themselves, but their hens as well. They refill when the grain price is low, produce flour when that commodity's price increases to make their own bread.

[biosceptic]

This means that Egypt produces on average 6,750,000 ardebs annually. Then 15% of it is lost in transport and storage, bringing the total around 5,750,000 ardebs.

Out of the produced wheat, around 3.5 million ardebs are the government’s supply, and the rest goes to the farmers.

I've seen grain crops growing in upper Egypt and I'm lead to believe that they receive no subsidies on fertilizers, they buy their own. As far as I'm aware they also buy their own seed. I was also lead to believe that they could keep or sell the crop as they wished. In my friends village there is a mill that is continually producing flour from the local harvests. Their grain is stored in a steel hundred gallon drum for up to a year, not only to feed themselves, but their hens as well. They refill when the grain price is low, produce flour when that commodity's price increases to make their own bread.

Then I don't understand what the article meant about the Governments supply do they purchase it from local farmers? If that's their way of supplying subsidised flour then how on earth will the increase the wheat plantings to meet their self sufficiency goals? Is it all just wishful thinking?

[BBLUX]

Maybe this present government is planning on taking Egypt back to its glory days when, in Pharaonic times, Egypt was the "bread basket" of the Mediterranean

[Dusak]

I know they used to import grain, but now I have more dosh in my bank account than they do so can't pay for any imports upfront or on delivery, they may have implemented such rules concerning crops produced here. As they keep shifting the goal posts with uncontrolled expediency its nay imposable to know exactly what is happening in the country until they march and protest against it.

[A-Four]

Just over 30 months ago now, I wrote an essay on here with regards to the mess the Egyptian Agricultural system was, and unfortunately, still is in.

Four years ago the international grain price fell, however the Egyptian government did not buy in enough thinking its domestic market would cover the short fall,.....it could not.

The following year, was a world disaster for grain production even in the U.S.A. and Russia. Egyptian farmers in both Middle and Upper Egypt switched production from grain to a then more profitable commodity being either mango or banana, as can today be seen every where on even Luxor's WB. Now we find that the market has fallen through the floor for banana and mango, and the nation of Egypt once again cries out for bread, unlike the days of the last bread riots, under Mubarak, he at least was able to raise money to eventually feed his people.

I wonder, where will Mursi be able to raise international cash, if his signature has not got the seal of Egypt after it., it appears now his government is not legal.

[Hafiz]

I did a long post on wheat some time ago. Egypt hasn't been self sufficient for decades and decades and has and continues to be the largest importer in the world. March 9, 2013 'Egypt Bakeries Protest...'

The whole mess of domestic growing, acquisition and import is managed by a shambolic government body.

Because of subsidies, both to farmers and for consumption, there is an absence of price signals and incentive to grow more or pay less on the international market.

One feature of Egyptian food production is the current land pattern of ownership with many farms not able to afford much needed mechanization and modern, and not cheap, farming methods.

[Bearded Brian]

Think any plans for increased harvests will be hit if there's no water coming from Ethiopia.

[Hafiz]

At this stage water supply isn't a problem, but it's use is.

Water wasteful agricultural practices are one thing but hugely expensive projects to make the 'desert bloom' are another. Egypt has sunk billions in a project to the SW of Luxor called the Toshka project. At least 500,000 acres for food production was planned. This project was not just bungled but seems to be in danger of causing an environmental disaster to the ground water. A further bungle was that the soils proposed for irrigation were 'found', well into the project, to be saline and thus of less agricultural use.

Another Mubarak prestige project gone wrong, money wasted, no one held to account, the gory details of bungling kept quiet and food still needing to be imported. When the full tally of the dictatorship's follies and bungling is made public I hope there is a more realistic opinion of that period and less nostalgia for the stability it brought and for the high price paid for that stability.

http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/to ... ga-failure