Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untrue.

Advice, information and discussion about Egypt in general.

Moderators: DJKeefy, 4u Network

User avatar
Hafiz
V.I.P
V.I.P
Posts: 1260
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2012 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 810 times
Been thanked: 731 times
Gender:
Australia

Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untrue.

Post by Hafiz » Tue Jun 11, 2013 9:23 am

The Egyptian Law and Order base-ball gets tossed around a lot on this forum. Always views are based on anecdote, rumor or newspaper reports. Any questioning of this is seen as insensitive to individual situations or lacking local knowledge whilst any attempt to put crime and law and order in Egypt in any context is either ignored or derided as lacking local knowledge. The standard response is often ‘its my opinion’ but opinions should be based on more than anecdote or rumor. Opinion presented as fact is close to bigotry.

Occasionally there are snide references implying that hard evidence is somehow cumbersome, pretentious, misses the nuances of local life or is grandstanding.
Unfavorable comparisons are often made between Egypt and first world countries. This is ridiculous and ignores its lack of resources and institutions. In some cases these comparisons are misleading because some of those ‘favored’ countries, and one in particular, are not as good as claimed or as remembered.

The view that crime in Egypt is high when compared with others is not true as are lots of related views put about. People who put these views should either put up or speak with caution.

Well here is another attempt to put crime, corruption, rule of law etc in context. This information could be goggled in two minutes by anyone half interested in Egypt.

The following is drawn from UN global stats on crime, conviction and punishment which paints a different picture to the one stridently trumpeted on this forum. Its findings are both fairer to Egyptians (because it is based on evidence and published by the UN) and at odds to the seemingly self absorbed experience of some ex-pats and holiday makers. It should also give caution to those who routinely and unfavorably compare Egypt to the idealized first world or at least a certain part of it.

I expect a response along the lines of ‘lies, dam lies and statistics’ but look forward to any evidence to the contrary.

Homicide rates in Egypt are the second lowest in Africa, behind Morocco, and are a small fraction of those in neighboring Sudan as well as those tourist hot spots Kenya, Tanzania and the Seychelles. The international tourist hot spot of South Africa has almost 20 times the homicide rate as Egypt. Egypt’s rates are slightly less than Canada, about a third of the US and about half the UK.

Major assault rates are very low in absolute terms (less than the world median but the stats are incomplete for Egypt).

All this might be meaningless until you compare the UK assault rates with those of poor benighted Portugal. In the UK you are almost 4 times likely to be assaulted. Compared with third world tourist spot, Thailand, you are 40 times safer from assault than in the UK.

Rape is uncommon in Egypt when compared with England and Wales where it is 50 times more likely. Thailand, another popular tourist spot, offers tourists relative safety from rape at a third of the rate of England and Wales.

Kidnapping is uncommon in Egypt as in civilized countries such as Germany and Austria but if you are worried about being kidnapped stay away from England and Wales where it is 80 times more likely than in Egypt.

Of course bribery is very bad in Egypt and compares unfavorably with the rest of the world.

Conviction rates are relatively high in Egypt compared with the rest of the world and are several times the rate of England and Wales. This might be music to the right wing of the UK Conservative Party but probably is a worrying sign of forced confessions and biased judges in Egypt.

Numbers of prosecutors in Egypt are relatively high when compared with similar states such as Algeria and Morocco and are 4 times the rate for England and Wales. This doesn’t seem to convert into anecdotes about court efficiency which tends to confirm my views, put elsewhere, that the bureaucracy is laden with timeservers and patronage. Again, on this point, the numbers of judges as a percentage of the population is higher in Egypt than England and Wales.

The prison stats are a bit difficult to understand with the rates of prison employees as a percentage of the population about six times higher in England and Wales than Egypt. Maybe part of this is the incarceration rates in England and Wales which are 50% higher than in Egypt.

There are no international pillaging stats, which might be for the better.

The crime stats published by the Metropolitan Police (hardly free of corruption) are similar to the above:

Egypt is about the same as other tourist sites like Indonesia, Philippines, Mexico, Tanzania and Argentina. That seems to make sense.

Hot tourist spots such as Italy and Greece are rated poorly on crime. Thailand and Morocco are better than Greece as is El Salvador. Bosnia is safer that Italy as is Romania, Jordan and Turkey, Rwanda and Costa Rica.

The UK is listed as only the 17th safest country in the world immediately above the USA and Chile.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/ ... A77-300972

I accept that these stats are surprising and probably contain errors, inaccuracies and data collection problems but, even allowing for large errors, you are left with a surprising general picture which should give even give the most biased Egyptian critic pause for thought.
http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and ... ustice.pdf

Freedom of the press isn’t law, order and crime but it is a proxy for a democracy and free systems like courts, police, prosecutions, the use of the press to force governments to maintain law, order and justice. On this measure, according to Freedom House’s international index Egypt is in the same category as Turkey, Italy, Greece, Spain and Hungry. It is ahead of Mexico and the Russian Federation. Not bad for a poor country.

http://www.freedomhouse.org/reports

Reporters Without Borders gives a ranking on international press freedom. Egypt is 158, which is pretty bad until you note that much richer countries such as Russia are 148, Turkey 154, Singapore 149 and the Philippines 147. One shouldn’t get too smug about western press freedom because Greece is 84, most of the former Yugoslavia in the 60’s, Italy 57, France 37, the UK 32 with little Portugal, Uruguay, Cyprus, Namibia, New Zealand and Costa Rica having a more free press than the self righteous European democracies. As you would, expect the ever intelligent and fair minded Canadians and Nordics do very well on freedom as they do on crime which sort of shows a link. Is there something about cold climates making people free and law abiding?
http://en.rsf.org/press-freedom-index-2013,1054.html

Courts and the justice system are part of the law and order system. The respected World Justice Project tries to come up with a justice index which rates all countries by accountability of public officials, even application of law, accessible justice and competent judges in adequate numbers with adequate resources.

Their index places Egypt in the same category as Romania and Bulgaria (not good company) but, on a ‘positive’ note, only slightly behind the much richer full democracies: Greece, Italy, Hungary and Brazil. In case we get too smug about the English Common Law compared with corrupt Egypt and dodgy Italy, the same index has the (non-common law) Nordics on top again (as ever, those freedom loving, efficient and hard working Vikings) and France, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands superior to the UK. By my reading, Australia, surely a tropical Nordic, comes out about number 5 in the world but I’m not using that to proclaim Australian superiority over the efforts of poor and unstable third world countries to deliver justice. Canada, as always, does well.
http://worldjusticeproject.org/rule-law-index-map

This is more than enough evidence for the time being and I hope that some find it a useful antidote to the Coronation Street, over the back fence, anecdotal carping carping about how bad Egypt is.

This is good evidence that Egypt is not as bad as alleged and not nearly as bad as you would expect when you compare it with rich countries. In addition it could be a lot worse. The lack of understanding of, and sympathy for, Egypt’s situation and how it copes with its problems whilst dealing, as best it can, with law and order and justice is something I cannot understand.



Bombay
Royal V.I.P
Royal V.I.P
Posts: 1990
Joined: Fri Jan 28, 2005 5:57 pm
Location: Luxor
Has thanked: 1794 times
Been thanked: 1696 times
Egypt

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by Bombay » Tue Jun 11, 2013 9:49 am

Well I would assume that due to the fact of the lower police presence and at one point the complete lack of policing the figures for crime in Egypt may appear low, when crime is not being reported, acted upon or recorded it does not exist.
What remains is if you ask just about any Egyptian around here one of their main concerns is still the lack of law and order.

User avatar
Hafiz
V.I.P
V.I.P
Posts: 1260
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2012 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 810 times
Been thanked: 731 times
Gender:
Australia

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by Hafiz » Tue Jun 11, 2013 10:13 am

Some of the crime figures are 2006 a small number 2008. The press figures are 2012 or 2013.

I've said they weren't exact and I accept that the situation has worsened in the past few years but the bleedingly obvious point is that when last recorded they were at complete odds with local impressions and anecdotes at the time and that the then rates of crime compared very favorably with wealthy countries. They have varied but how much would they have to vary to now be worse than the UK, the US or similar others. Even allowing for underestimation of crime by 300% and for an increase in crime since the revolution by 300% and then double that again, Egypt would still be safer in relation to some crimes than some parts of the west. Read the figures in the reports

The UN data collection has adjusted for a number deficiencies in third world countries to make comparisons possible. The link will get you to their methodology.

You talk about acting on crime - read the post - the conviction and incarceration rates in Egypt are very high. The number of judges and prosecutors are also high.

Even if the situation has badly worsened rape, kidnapping and maybe assault rates started very much lower than so called 'civilized' countries and since that time crime rates across Europe, but particularly in the UK, have increased dramatically in the past few years. Egypt isn't the only one to face a crime wave.

As an afterthought the Metropolitan Police make much of 'perceptions of crime' and feelings of insecurity which are at variance to actual crime. Some might find this a relevant read.

User avatar
Chocolate Eclair
Royal V.I.P
Royal V.I.P
Posts: 1621
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:56 pm
Location: Luxor Egypt
Has thanked: 124 times
Been thanked: 752 times
Gender:
Egypt

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by Chocolate Eclair » Tue Jun 11, 2013 3:43 pm

Bombay you are so right, when things happen people for some reason or other fear going to the Police because of the amount of money the police charge to do things for you, its a common topic of talk. It seems as though families do things by themselves to prevent extra payments, therefore these things will not get reported.

User avatar
Zooropa
Royal V.I.P
Royal V.I.P
Posts: 2509
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:11 pm
Location: Leicester
Has thanked: 1286 times
Been thanked: 1749 times
Gender:
United Kingdom

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by Zooropa » Tue Jun 11, 2013 6:53 pm

And taking the law into your own hands is going to eventually end in tears.

User avatar
carrie
Egyptian Pharaoh
Egyptian Pharaoh
Posts: 4359
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2005 10:46 am
Location: luxor
Has thanked: 2799 times
Been thanked: 5387 times
United Kingdom

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by carrie » Tue Jun 11, 2013 8:21 pm

I have had no problems here and as a single woman certainly feel much safer than I would in the UK however crime here is on the increase there can be no doubt of that. It is a topic of conversation amongst Egyptians and until the police return to doing their duty it will continue to be so.

Bombay
Royal V.I.P
Royal V.I.P
Posts: 1990
Joined: Fri Jan 28, 2005 5:57 pm
Location: Luxor
Has thanked: 1794 times
Been thanked: 1696 times
Egypt

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by Bombay » Wed Jun 12, 2013 1:48 am

Chocolate Eclair wrote:Bombay you are so right, when things happen people for some reason or other fear going to the Police because of the amount of money the police charge to do things for you, its a common topic of talk. It seems as though families do things by themselves to prevent extra payments, therefore these things will not get reported.
I have never paid money for policing I just cannot be bothered most of the time with the time it takes.

User avatar
BENNU
Egyptian Pharaoh
Egyptian Pharaoh
Posts: 3200
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2009 6:31 pm
Has thanked: 973 times
Been thanked: 3457 times
Gender:
Egypt

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by BENNU » Wed Jun 12, 2013 3:14 am

Hafiz wrote: As you would, expect the ever intelligent and fair minded Canadians and Nordics do very well on freedom as they do on crime which sort of shows a link. Is there something about cold climates making people free and law abiding?

In case we get too smug about the English Common Law compared with corrupt Egypt and dodgy Italy, the same index has the (non-common law) Nordics on top again (as ever, those freedom loving, efficient and hard working Vikings) ...
Denmark has been ranked the least corrupt country in the world 2012, Australia rank 7, Canada rank 9, UK rank 17 and Egypt rank 118.

http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2012/results/

We freedom loving Nordics have come a long way since the Viking Age and we blame the weather for a lot, but not for our sence of justice and love of freedom and I would not blame any unjustice or lack of freedom on the heat, of course. I have always told young Egyptians and Eastern Europeans that it has taken generations to built a system like ours (though we sometimes take it for granted).

Hafiz wrote:This is good evidence that Egypt is not as bad as alleged and not nearly as bad as you would expect when you compare it with rich countries. In addition it could be a lot worse.
Yes, it could be a lot worse.

User avatar
Dusak
Egyptian Pharaoh
Egyptian Pharaoh
Posts: 5874
Joined: Sun May 11, 2008 2:29 pm
Location: LUXOR
Has thanked: 5895 times
Been thanked: 7328 times
Gender:
Thailand

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by Dusak » Wed Jun 12, 2013 7:01 am

Stats are all fine and dandy when they are able to quote every, or near every single incident that is crime related. In Egypt it has always been traditional for the victims of crime to sort it out themselves, they barter the worth of a crime, agree on a value, pay over the money, sorted. Who needs to involve the police for at least they are getting a result from these negotiations and not loosing even more money to the hands of the police. They didn't like the police in the past, they don't like them now. If you LIVE here and have long standing Egyptian friends, especially family's that have excepted you and trust you as I have, after a while you get to see the line that separates black from white. You become privy to the truth concerning what is really going on concerning crime in Egypt and not just in the past, but now, today as I type this.

Do your stats take into account the hundreds of deaths and thousands that have been injured since the revolution started? Or is this collateral damage, victims of circumstance that are not worthy to be placed on stats sheets. All the deaths at the football match. Where these classed as sporting injuries, so were not added. If an innocent person is slapped in the face, its an unwarranted assault. If an innocent person gets killed by another while taking part in a march, to my mind, its an unlawful killing. If you [anyone] had the balls to go to each and every one of these victims families and attempted to show them the loss/ injury's of their family members was justified as they were not deemed a crime, I think that you would become a stat. on the sheet. What I call ''in the public eye crime'' is definitely on the increase, more so in the last two years and I'm of the opinion that it will continue to clime, although I also think the police interest in this rise in crime will decrease. For a female to report a sexual assault or rape here in Egypt is very rare as the religious beliefs state that it must of been the girls/woman's fault as she must of been of easy virtue and now she is tainted, unwanted by any future husband, so they remain silent fearing the consequences. Last year when the young sister of my Egyptian family was brutally murdered I was told by my friend, the elder sister that three days after her body was discovered, a police officer of rank repeated three times in the street to the gathered public that she had died a virgin so was not to blame for her own death. This was of enormous relief to the family as she [the dead daughter] could be buried with honor. Which just about explains the mind set of this countries beliefs. I'm at a loss really understanding why you would feel the need to attempt to prove otherwise by posting these stats, its as if you want to contradict us here in Luxor to belittle our locally known facts. I say this in reference to your 'over the garden wall Coronation Street gossip' remark. Now that is pure fiction. Unless of course, you believe otherwise.
Life is your's to do with as you wish- do not let other's try to control it for you. Count Dusak- 1345.

User avatar
Chocolate Eclair
Royal V.I.P
Royal V.I.P
Posts: 1621
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:56 pm
Location: Luxor Egypt
Has thanked: 124 times
Been thanked: 752 times
Gender:
Egypt

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by Chocolate Eclair » Wed Jun 12, 2013 7:40 am

I expect a response along the lines of ‘lies, dam lies and statistics’ but look forward to any evidence to the contrary[/b]. Are we back to the Ethiopia Dam again?

User avatar
LivinginLuxor
Top Member
Top Member
Posts: 991
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 9:50 am
Location: Luxor, Egypt
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 546 times
Gender:
Egypt

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by LivinginLuxor » Wed Jun 12, 2013 8:42 am

Well, I tend to agree with Hafiz - how many reports of alleged crime here begin "I heard" or "Someone told me" - a rumour mill, almost as bad as the Daily Mail! He is right that the 'perception of crime' seems always to be ahead of the actual criminality. Despite the fact that crime in Britain has steadily been dropping, the perception of 'it's unsafe to walk the streets of London, Manchester, Birmingham, wherever' seems to be general. Similarly, the perception of immigration rates, social security dependency rates etc also are belied by the actual facts. It does seem that we prefer our opinions/mindset to the truth whenever the two clash!
I might agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong!
Stan

User avatar
Bullet Magnet
Royal V.I.P
Royal V.I.P
Posts: 2530
Joined: Sat Nov 21, 2009 10:38 am
Location: Le Manège Enchanté
Has thanked: 9029 times
Been thanked: 2303 times

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by Bullet Magnet » Wed Jun 12, 2013 8:53 am

These reports all helps with the separation of the people Stan.. Keep 'em low, keep 'em stupid. . . :cool:

I wrote a comment on the situation in Turkey, the issue was to do with a public park that the Government want to turn into a shoppong mall or something equally ridiculous.
I had 80 replies, and by reply number 10, the comments were ALL about the Terrorist Muslims, and Immigration.... Lamb's ' and all that..
You cant save 'em all, so please don't mind me if I just save myself.. Cheers... :br
There's a time for everyone, if they only learn
That the twisting kaleidoscope moves us all in turn.

Bombay
Royal V.I.P
Royal V.I.P
Posts: 1990
Joined: Fri Jan 28, 2005 5:57 pm
Location: Luxor
Has thanked: 1794 times
Been thanked: 1696 times
Egypt

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by Bombay » Wed Jun 12, 2013 10:48 am

I recently read a statement that statistics show Tourist rates to Egypt were nearly back to pre revolution levels which is funny because I recall seeing more than a dozen people in 2010

User avatar
Who2
Egyptian Pharaoh
Egyptian Pharaoh
Posts: 6714
Joined: Fri Jul 16, 2010 12:04 pm
Location: Snitzel
Has thanked: 1482 times
Been thanked: 5311 times
Gender:
Vietnam

Re: Anecdotal Claims About Crime in Egypt Exagerated or Untr

Post by Who2 » Wed Jun 12, 2013 1:06 pm

"Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far." Teddy wasn't wrong, there are streets in Islington one wouldn't walk and that's a dead fashionable part of London, any town has it's undesirable elements and no go areas, live & learn 'speak softly and carry a big tazer..[21st century]....:cool:
and you can sneak em through in hold luggage.
Ps: from sticks to cudgels, saps, sword-sticks, knuckledusters, gotta cut-throat razors, pepper sprays now tazers,
Think ! typical yank personnel protection knee jerk response a fully automatic killing machine....cowboy's..
"The Salvation of Mankind lies in making everything the responsibility of All"
Sophocles.

  • Similar Topics
    Replies
    Views
    Last post
  • Egypt group claims responsibility for attack
    by DJKeefy » Sat Nov 15, 2014 9:01 am » in Politics and Religion
    1 Replies
    666 Views
    Last post by jewel
    Sat Nov 15, 2014 6:02 pm
  • Rise in crime intensifies unease in once-safe Egypt
    by DJKeefy » Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:20 am » in Know Egypt
    15 Replies
    1482 Views
    Last post by DJKeefy
    Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:12 pm
  • Egypt seeks to put the brakes on crime riding tuk-tuk wave
    by DJKeefy » Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:09 pm » in Know Egypt
    1 Replies
    248 Views
    Last post by newcastle
    Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:15 pm
  • Egypt could make it a crime to insult historic figures
    by DJKeefy » Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:49 am » in Politics and Religion
    7 Replies
    347 Views
    Last post by newcastle
    Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:27 pm
  • Jihadist group claims bomb targeting Egypt minister
    by DJKeefy » Sun Sep 08, 2013 10:37 pm » in Politics and Religion
    7 Replies
    630 Views
    Last post by Dusak
    Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:39 pm