An Arab winter?

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An Arab winter?

Post by jewel »

With the recent military coup in Egypt, and the volatile and unsettled situation in the country the question has to be posed, is this indeed the start of a protracted Arab winter?

The main problem is Egypt right now are a rapidly increasing overpopulation, and an equally rapidly diminishing resources, this in addition to the current political situation.

It is a complicated situation that is a given, with western backing for the Egyptian army it leaves the country in a precarious position, yes it may be the Muslim Brotherhood has authoritarian tendencies and an ambition to use power for itself. These arise from successfully surviving as an underground during many decades of torture, imprisonment, infiltration and banning by the US-supported Mubarak dictatorship, and the Brotherhood won the democratic parliamentary elections of 2011–12, Morsi won the presidential election of June 2012 and the December 2012 referendum on the new constitution.
These are the facts that cannot be denied, and completely legitimate.


It is claimed by the anti-Brotherhood forces that Morsi turned dictatorial last November when declaring himself temporarily immune from judicial review. That act triggered formation of the new National Salvation Front led by several former presidential candidates.

Morsi’s dilemma was that he faced absolute opposition from the Mubarak-era judiciary, and so circumvented their obduracy to push the constitutional measure as a voter referendum. From his point of view, Morsi had no choice. From the opposition view, he became the new Mubarak. The heart of the dispute was the Brotherhood’s quest for a more Islamic form of governance against the opposition’s implacable opposition to the Brotherhood’s having any legitimacy. But if Morsi was wrong in sending the constitution to a popular vote, his manoeuvre was ratified by a democratic vote.

On the other hand, the new “tamarod” (rebellion) movement, which claims to have collected 20 million petitions, had no constitutional basis whatever for petitioning the Supreme Constitutional Court for a presidential recall (Congressional Research Service report, June 27). It doesn’t seem to matter now that this entirely novel proposal has been bypassed by the generals who, in turn, are scrambling to justify their deeds.

Without US funding, Egypt would collapse.

The economic assistance has been cut by more than half the amount that was allocated during the Mubarak years, despite the evidence that the Egyptian economy today is a basket case (malnutrition and poverty rising, crime spiking, a stagnant GDP of 2.2 percent last year.
They are seeking to impose IMF austerity measures, that would cut subsidies for food and gas.

It would seem the Egyptian army has led the country into a new uncharted situation, and one of real danger
For the moment, the mainstream media and many progressives might be celebrating the exuberant street protests as evidence of “second chance” for democracy in Egypt. Certainly Egyptian liberals, revolutionaries, Facebook bloggers, womens’ rights groups and others have reason to feel heady, even ecstatic, at the experience of accomplishing another revolution from below so quickly. But sooner rather than later, the headaches will return. The country is paralyzed by division: the Islamists split between Brotherhood and Salafists; the secular liberals, students, women and intellectuals representing only 20 percent of the population; the self-interested, US-financed army a force serving its own interests.

There is no doubt that Morsi had made some headway, from a rational perspective of national interests, Morsi was an independent and constructive force. Morsi was a mediator between Israel and Hamas in the ceasefire agreement of 2012. He also tried to mediate indirect Israel-Hamas discussions after the ceasefire, and the talks among the Palestinian factions aimed at closing the gap between Fatah and Hamas. Two-thirds of Israelis in late 2012 said Morsi had a positive impact on diminishing Gaza violence.

The few Americans—some of them in high places—who believe that deepening chaos in the Arab world is somehow good for the Israelis, and therefore good for the United States, tend also to indulge in visions of Armageddon and the Apocalypse. They may be quietly rejoicing now, but the future they fantasize is one of perpetual war with its inevitable blowback. Their less-religious brethren in the national security state have a parallel preference for maintaining sectarian divisions, or sometimes sectarian dictatorships, against the perceived threat of nationalist unity anywhere in the Third World. They are pleased, on the whole, that their bloody Mubarak era has passed without giving rise to a unified nationalist Egyptian state standing up in the midst of the seething Arab world, one that would make the Arab oil monarchies tremble on their thrones and even force the Israelis to face a formidable new ally for the Palestinians at the tables of negotiation.

The gates of Hell are swinging loose.



Read more: The Coup in Egypt: An Arab Winter? | The Nation http://www.thenation.com/article/175121 ... z2YFYsSlsr
Follow us: @thenation on Twitter | TheNationMagazine on Facebook


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Re: An Arab winter?

Post by Hafiz »

Interesting article. The author (Hayden) is no more an expert on the region than the pope is an expert on family life.

Hayden was, however, a major leader of the student movement in the US in the late 60's/early 70's and therefore a world expert on demonstrations, petitions, media management and really bad long hair and beards (something shared with the current 'radicals' in the region). As a former gold standard student rebel he seems to have moved a mile and now has less positive views of the tamarod kids and even has a few ok views of very unhip Morsi!

His brain may have rotted either with age or from marriage to Jane Fonda. Being with "Hanoi Jane" then would be now like being married to someone who visited with Al Quaeda and came back to say how good it was. What a self publicist she was.
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Re: An Arab winter?

Post by Chocolate Eclair »

Jewel, there has not been a Military Coup in Egypt, ask the Politicians and the Military, they are all refusing to call it that.

They say its the will of the people that has been carried out, and that the aim now is to get on track for PresidentiL and Parliamentry elections. it's the Media calling it a Coup....
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Re: An Arab winter?

Post by jewel »

CE not a coop ( that's for hens! Dear) a COUP which however you try to avoid calling it that is what has happened in Egypt.
It would appear that a lot of the people are certainly far from happy about he situation, whatever the media reports, so you may ask, the will of which people? Playing devils advocate here, but that's the situation as it stands.
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Re: An Arab winter?

Post by LovelyLadyLux »

There was an Arab Spring, Morsi now had a Fall soooooo I guess an Arab Winter is coming up next......... :))
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Re: An Arab winter?

Post by Chocolate Eclair »

Playing with words Jewel, we need to keep things light at the moment until more is known about the future. The way the Media is reporting at the moment you would think we are apart of Helmund Province and really that is not so.
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Re: An Arab winter?

Post by Dusak »

Chocolate Eclair wrote:Playing with words Jewel, we need to keep things light at the moment until more is known about the future. The way the Media is reporting at the moment you would think we are apart of Helmund Province and really that is not so.
Perhaps not quite Choc, but a close facsimile. Innocent people are getting shot, no go area's are on the increase, homes and buildings are getting looted. Live ammunition is being used on the population along with teargas. Snipers are in evidence on the rooftops indiscriminately killing folk. Explosions are heard, cars, businesses are set alight. Christians are killing Muslims and vice-versa. The armed forces are patrolling the streets with heavy weaponry and curfews have been put in place at various times. Air force planes and Apache attack helicopters patrol the sky's. Now we hear on the news that other terrorist groups are suspected of being employed by the MB's to do their dirty work for them. Helmund province/ Cairo province-spot the difference.
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