Arab Youth Survey 2017 - Unemployment.

[Hafiz]

Arab Youth Survey 2017.

Its professionally done and best looked at rather than described.

It gives no breakdown by country but the North African results that include Egypt paint a dark picture bordering on hopelessness and maybe anger. 2/3rds think their schools not good. 85% think their governments should do more to address their needs. Positive views on Russia are on the rise which shows Middle East judgment is not improved by past mistakes.

With the exception of Gulfies, the opinion/feelings are pessimistic and incapable of continuing in a pacific way.

Their survey results are visually sophisticated but more style than substance.
http://arabyouthsurvey.com/findings.html

These people do what CAPMASS, the Egypt stats agency, declines to do – youth unemployment. The Arab survey gives it at 42%. Because Egypt is so socially rigid/socially immobile, unemployment in the young lower classes must be higher whereas in the young upper classes its very low – if at all. Brookings says its 31/32% for young people in Egypt.

Given the total size of the young cohort, that means the national general level covering all ages is likely 15-22% and higher in economically depressed areas like Upper Egypt - say 45%. CAPMAS thinks, if it thinks at all, in terms of alleged national figures and says it is 11% which is unbelievable. If its 31% for half the population, as Brookings says, it can't be 11% for the whole population.

Female unemployment rates are astronomical, but CAPMASS isn’t interested. In particular the rates for unemployment for young women who finish secondary school are 11 times higher than for men and for those with a university degree (usually the better off) twice as high. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/e ... 858_EN.pdf

Whether it is girls or boys the abysmal state of the government education system increases the chances of unemployment whilst the expensive private system gives a high chance of employment or getting into university for the middle class. Illiteracy rates are also appalling and nationally twice as worse for women as for men and worse still in Upper Egypt as well as being worse for poorer people.

There is no good news in this survey.

This is not sustainable and even the best politicians and bureaucrats in the world would take years to halve it. Therefore its going to be around for a long time and the longer people are unemployed the more unemployable they are – and the more socially/psychologically dysfunctional. If they marry and have children the children experience upbringings/diets/medical care/limited education which can cause further dysfunction. For example escapees from North Korea have limited IQ’s and poor general health because of poor childhood diets.

The standard government story is not unconnected to a certain view of reality. In November last year the President said this in an American interview:

“Of course the economic situation is improving very much. We have launched big projects. First with the Suez Canal, one and a half million acres of land for cultivation, fish farming, road networks, energy projects, all these projects, housing projects, infrastructure in general. It involved lots of laborers. Almost 3 million citizens were working for three and a half years on these projects.” https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/07/cnbc-in ... -sisi.html

3 million extra jobs on new projects for 3 ½ continuous years. How could all of us have missed this/had no obvious effect? In any event they are transitional projects which come to an end following which there is nothing. India, China and Indonesia have gone another and obvious way – permanent jobs linked to well run industries that produce something people want to buy or export.

Still I imagine some were impressed/deluded by the President including the Western Sisi worshipers resident in Luxor who drape themselves in Egyptian flags. They have been strangely silent for a few years. Maybe they are in a military jail – arrested and imprisoned without charge. Lets hope they passed the virginity test.