The Nile Water Dries Up.

[Hafiz]

The Water Dries Up.

Egypt needs water but produces little. You would think that this would lead to economy, innovation and good relations with the source of the Nile but the very opposite is true and the current screaming and yelling by Egypt is not about its rights/justice but about laziness, stupidity and arrogance all of which have now caught up with it. The Nile water issue also puts the spotlight on Egypt's relations with all neighbors and about the best that can be said is that all are not currently at war with it. Unfortunately the same could also be said of 50 years ago or 100 years ago and I'm thinking that no country is so surrounded with other countries who hate it. Such are the successes of 70 years of single military junta and their farsighted vision of their water.

So the Egypt water is linked with the sources of the water who don't like you for a century. Where do you think this story will go?

Egypt has few friends, least of all ones relevant to the Ethiopian Dam. The dam is now 70% complete and to Ethiopia its not just about water but also about electricity and industrial development in a country that is dreadfully poor, unstable and has suffered decades of awful violence that is partially understood in the west. Egypt’s aggressive fears about the dam it ignore its own extreme waste of agricultural water (85% of Egyptian usage), poor water infrastructure, complete refusal to face the effects of climate change on agriculture and reliance on high water usage/low profit crops. Egypt also chooses to ignore generations of bad behavior by it towards other users/sources of the Nile and a very defined arrogance.

My guess is that this dam will be one of many on the upper reaches of the Nile by others yet Egypt refuses to get its own house in order to deal with this future and rants and threatens others who produce this water it misuses.

I don’t want to go into the details except to say all the Nile Water comes from other countries (Ethiopia produces about 90% but currently consumes very little) and Egypt produces nothing but uses most of it. Many of those countries further up the Nile have generations of bad dealings with Egypt on Nile water.

The proposals that Sudan and Ethiopia build dams to develop agriculture go back a century and the building the current Aswan Dam revealed a ruthless approach by Nasser’s/Egypt’s towards other users. (this period is very complicated but for those who want links I have some). The most recent treaty on Nile water in 1959 deliberately, at Egypt’s behest, excluded Ethiopia and confirmed a long tradition of bad behavior and contained very large allocations for Egypt and little for anyone else. Nasser handled this treaty personally.

The hypocrisy of Egypt is that the dam they now oppose is outside the treaty, at their insistence. Egypt demanded that some states be controlled and others not and Ethiopia is not inside and is doing exactly what it wants and is given the power under International Law to do this because of what Egypt wanted. Ethiopia contributes 90% of Nile waters but is not a party to any treaty – at Egypt’s insistence.

So the broader story is of poor relations between Egypt and its neighbors going back a long time followed in recent generations by rough diplomacy and zig zaging.

Relations with Ethiopia have never been good. In 1872 Pasha Ismail invaded Ethiopia through its then territory Eritrea (subsequently lost to the Italians in 1889 but Egyptian control was limited before that) to gain control of the Blue Nile and its water security. As is usually the case Egypt was defeated and its army destroyed by primitive and ill-equipped Ethiopians. Another attempt in 1876 again destroyed the Egyptian army. As is the case today with disasters, news of these defeats was utterly suppressed in Egypt. http://www.historynet.com/first-italo-a ... -adowa.htm. These invasions to control the Nile built bad feelings in Ethiopia and mistrust.

Thus the current water/dam trouble has 5 generations of ill will with Ethiopia behind it including unsuccessful British efforts as late as ’56 to try and sort out usage on a fairer basis/to the advantage of Sudan – opposed by Egypt and not well handled by the UK Foreign office and the unstable Cabinet.

Other than bombing the dam (unlikely to be supported by Saudi, opposed by EU, Israel and most of Sub-Saharan Africa and a diversion when Iran is the main issue) or forcing the Americans to do/pay for a deal (they are asleep on this matter) all that is left is habituated idiot Egyptian behavior – and posturing for the Egyptian audience.

The Sudan supports Ethiopia on the Dam and the others – Kenya and Uganda can’t stand Egypt. The UN is silent. The recent trip/promises to Kenya by the Egyptian FM Shoukry, made things worse, as they usually do, and the Nairobi newspapers were full of stories about Egyptian Junta excesses. In the next decade these countries who are party to the treaty will construct dams for farming and electricity purposes and their general view is that Egypt has had it too good for too long at their expense. http://harvardpolitics.com/world/lookin ... -politics/

Whilst the current approach is Egyptian kisses the background back to the 1880’s has been military intervention/military power to twist Ethiopia to Egyptian needs (maybe another post on the long history)

Relations with Ethiopia are bad. For some years Ethiopia has accused Egypt of funding Sudanese insurgents – probably correct. https://www.timesofisrael.com/ethiopia- ... med-group/ Wasted money because the new Ethiopian PM heads up the group they used to/still do fund and is, and was always, far from pro-Egyptian.

In January the Supreme Generals tried a military card by moving, probably with UAE funding/support, troops to Ethiopia’s ‘mortal’ enemy, Eritrea to intimidate the dam builders. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180 ... n-eritrea/ They should feel at home because Eritrea was part of Egypt until it was ‘lost’ to the Italians around 1890.

Unfortunately for Egypt they now face a new, young and very talented Ethiopian PM. Abiy Ahmed. Brought up with Christian and Muslim parents, superbly trained as a military officer, very well educated in new technology and change management (in the west – shock horror) and a democrat. He has released thousands of political prisoners – shock horror – as a first step to harmony and national reconciliation – shock horror. There are divisions in Ethiopia and in its army and a recent assassination attempt on him was probably from the old comos who don’t want democracy and reform and are probably a potential Egyptian ally as are dissidents in Djibouti.

The UN loves him, the Gates Foundation supports him, Saudi is wary, Israel likes him, Jordan loves him and Europe has great hopes for him in this benighted and very poor, huge country. Indian relations are very warn and India has educated a number of Ethiopian leaders. Relations with Qatar are close and it is a co-funder of the dam.

Quickly he is resolving bitter internal regional/tribal divisions and has, even quicker, solved the long running Ethiopian- Eritrean problem, has very recently visited there for the first time in decades and there is a peace treaty. Afwerki the dictator of Eriteria is a brute and this deal will be fragile.

That means the Egyptian battalion now sits in the territory of Ethiopia’s new best friend. So the new best enemy is in the wrong place – no bother the UAE paid for it all with some large suitcases – Mossack Fonseca, Panama, EAF A/c.

Egypt didn’t see this coming – as if it ever saw anything coming. The state visit by the head of Eritrea in January (his third visit to Sisi) seems to have proven one thing – Egyptian kisses don’t amount to much. Maybe a full scale Egyptian invasion, funded by the UAE, of the ‘greatest army in the world’ of Sudan and Ethiopia is the next Imperial step? https://aawsat.com/english/home/article ... on-eritrea Maybe the Ethiopians remembered that Egypt did nothing to stop the Italians taking over in the 19th century and did nothing to free them from the brutal Italian expansion (including weapons of mass destruction on civilians) before and during in WW2. No one ever suggested Egypt as a loyal ally and the rhetoric of brotherhood in the region amounts to nothing.

Another military/diplomatic fiasco. Go back to the kisses.

The treatment of North Sudan in the last year is even sillier and has varied from coarse barking and implied threat to kisses. What are they up to? Are stable, careful thorough policies beyond them? Sudan’s recent close embrace, and lots of money from, Turkey (basically Turk control of Suakin with the intention of asserting Red Sea power) has made Egypt paranoid although I have always thought paranoia the standard operating procedure. The background is invasion in the 19th century, brutal and incompetent administration and hundreds of years of slaving into Egypt – none of this has ever been apologized for.

Sudan has accused Egypt of funding anti-Khartoum insurgents – probably correct. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170 ... to-rebels/ They are also arguing over their border https://issafrica.org/iss-today/do-egyp ... on-anymore. So Egypt wants support on the Nile water matter from a ‘friend’ it is trying to stab in the back and whom in the 50’s tried to starve of Nile water.

Relations with South Sudan – an important source of Nile water – are poisonous. For probably centuries it was a source of slaves for the Cairo markets and which added to Egypt’s wealth. For decades Egypt has supplied the north with arms, opposed division of the country, treated the Christian south with disdain (assisted in this by the complete silence of Egyptian Copts and his Un-Holiness their Pope). Recently Egypt has possibly (hard to know) air bombed the southern Christians https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sout ... SKBN15J0KG. During their dreadful and long civil war the south relied on Ethiopia, Uganda, Israel and the UN. Whilst 1-2 million were shot or starved Egypt gave not a penny – until Sisi sent one plane in 2012 surrounded by news reporters. In recent months Shoukry the FM has been south with kisses – to get the south’s vote on the Nile agreement – transparent and too late. https://thearabweekly.com/egypt-looks-s ... -dam-fears. At the moment Ethiopia supports and houses the displaced government of South Sudan.

Others give money and advice to try and build institutions for prosperity and peace https://www.usip.org/publications/2018/ ... tion-libya whilst Egypt gives guns as it does in Ethiopia and Sudan and then complains about chaos. Egypt never gives aid – not even to the poor Palestinians.

How America allows this god only knows.

Egypt does have friends – just can’t think of who they are. Syria, Russia and North Korea for starters. If they are your friends you should suicide in shame, moral revulsion and a realization that you have an infallible ability to back losers.

The worst/best that can be said about the current Egyptian –Ethiopian tension is chapter 1 of the dictators handbook. When things crumble at home go to war to distract attention, fuel nationalism, glorify the army and bond people with their otherwise inept ruler. Some expert commentators think Egyptian military action possible and in the last few days the engineer manager of the dam was shot in the head in Addis – seemingly a professional execution.

[Major Thom]

they could always go to the IMF for another loan and pay Ethiopia for water!!