The Latest Political Ad

[Horus]

I think that even an out vote may have its hidden dangers, I can imagine certain politicians wanting to see doom and gloom prevail in the UK economy just to justify their own previous stance. To that end quite a few who are now in the positions of power would not be the best people to represent our best interests or to negotiate on our behalf when the time comes. Those involved will need to be people who previously took the 'out' position to ensure that they are determined to get the best deals and to keep any future trade deals on the front burner, either way I cannot see it being an easy ride for the Tory party.

[Horus]

This just goes to show that when the remain campaign get challenged by someone with the political knowledge of people like Andrew Neil that their scare tactics of 'project fear' get blown apart, worth watching all the way through.

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[LovelyLadyLux]

Since California isn't in "play" we're spared most of the political ads. I pity the poor slobs who live in swing states.

Results of the California Primary June 7th - so maybe your State isn't getting lots of Political Ads but is seems there are a quite a FEW there who like Trump sufficient to vote for him

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/cli ... ornia-n-j/

[newcastle]

This just goes to show that when the remain campaign get challenged by someone with the political knowledge of people like Andrew Neil that their scare tactics of 'project fear' get blown apart, worth watching all the way through.

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Thanks for that Horus....I missed it, having left London to return to Egypt.

Osborne's "threat" has to be the daftest utterance from either side during this IN-OUT debate. What was the man thinking? A budget, as proposed, would never see the light of day and the REMAIN speaker would have done better to acknowledge this and move on....rather than being systematically chewed up and spat out by Andrew.

15 minutes of totally wasted airtime.

The economic arguments are complex....and burdened with all sorts of assumptions....and it's sad to see such a major decision for the UK descending into a Punch & Judy argument between which "headline announcement" is the more ridiculous.

I did catch Neil interviewing a LEAVE speaker on the 350 million a week (can't recall who it was) with similar results. A fatal refusal to acknowledge a basic fallacy which left the speaker looking like a numpty.

It would be nice to see a discussion along the lines " there's likely to be an economic cost to leaving, difficult to quantify, against which you have to weigh the advantage, again difficult to quantify, of being able to control (i.e. reduce) immigration from EU".

Too much to ask for , I'm afraid, in today's knockabout politics.

A pox on both their houses

[Horus]

This is exactly what most British voters have been saying all along that neither side is giving plausible or provable reasons for choosing 'in' or 'out'. We have a Prime Minister that not many weeks ago said that Britain would survive OK outside of the EU and now spins tales of doom and gloom at the very thought of it. We have a Chancellor that has constantly failed to get his own predictions correct or to balance the books as promised, we have suffered 8 years of austerity and all he offers is more of the same, yet in the same breath he predicts the state of the UK economy in the year 2030.

Then we have the other side of the coin with fiscal claims regarding EU contributions that are only partially true and their claims about Turkish immigration is frankly out of the window in the foreseeable future. The truth lies somewhere in between, yes there will be some impact on our economy, but no one can say how big or small that will be, is for example a growth rate .5% less than it maybe have been over a 15 year period an actual loss, or is it just not doing as good as we may have done? The two scenarios are often given in a confusing way "each family will be £4500 worse off" when what they really mean is that if you took the nations wealth and divided it up equally then your share would come out at £4500 less than previously and even that is based on speculation and the fact that the wealthy each have a bigger share of that pot.

The same goes for the 350 million per week contribution to the EU, that is a gross figure and does not include our rebate negotiated by Maggy Thatcher, but on the flip side the remain campaign cannot guarantee that the rebate will not be slashed if we remained in the EU as it is easily (and often) challenged by other members. Should that happen then the out camp would be more correct in their claim, however they do spread their 10 billion pound saving a bit thinly will all their promises.

The EU does seem obsessed with including ever more countries into the EU and that itself must dilute our own influence as each member has the same vote. Turkey is very unlikely to gain admission anytime soon so that is a scare from the out campaign, however even as we speak the EU and the UK have pledged millions to further their case for faster admission. Also with the crucial role that Turkey will play in holding back uncontrolled EU migration then we can expect that behind the scenes that some deals are being done regarding visa free travel for Turkish citizens.

So there we have it, truths and half truths on both sides and reality lies somewhere in the middle. What is certain though (IMO) is that there is definitely a groundswell of opinion from almost everyone I speak to that they want out of the EU and they are tired of the way they feel they are being threatened and lied to by Cameron and his allies, people just don't trust them and there is even an attitude of "stuff you, you will not threaten me into supporting your views" about the electorate, I think the more that people like Osborne make threats then the more people are determined to vote the opposite way. In the end it will come down to how frightened people are of the future and like Scotland they may just step back from the brink when it comes to a vote.

One thing that has not been explored is the influence of the Scottish vote, most voters wish to remain a part of the EU and around 50% would like independence from the UK if the vote is to leave. Those voters or a large percentage may try a double bluff and vote to leave the EU knowing that if that were to happen it would likely trigger a new Scottish referendum and they would get their wish of becoming an Independent country remaining within the EU. This may explain the fact that Corben previously a staunch advocate against the EU is standing shoulder to shoulder with Cameron, could this be the reason as he knows that without a Scottish Labour vote his party is unlikely ever to get back into power in future UK general elections?

[LuxorFan]

You're seriously delusional if you think Donald Trump is going to win California in the general election. He won the republican primary because all the other candidates had dropped out weeks ago. LOL!!!

[Jayway]

As a member of the Trump Train I really hope he wins and lives long enough to make a few changes, like get the helicopters back in the air .. etc etc

[LuxorFan]

He's his own worst enemy. He simply can't keep his mouth shut long enough to think through anything he says. Party operatives are wringing their hands over his bizarre behavior. There's serious talk among substantive, respected republicans about changing convention rules to unbind delegates to vote for who ever they choose. There's great concern his bungling, stubbornness will cause republican losses in the house and senate.

[newcastle]

One thing that has not been explored is the influence of the Scottish vote, most voters wish to remain a part of the EU and around 50% would like independence from the UK if the vote is to leave. Those voters or a large percentage may try a double bluff and vote to leave the EU knowing that if that were to happen it would likely trigger a new Scottish referendum and they would get their wish of becoming an Independent country remaining within the EU. This may explain the fact that Corben previously a staunch advocate against the EU is standing shoulder to shoulder with Cameron, could this be the reason as he knows that without a Scottish Labour vote his party is unlikely ever to get back into power in future UK general elections?

You may be right....I heard a commentator last night saying the Scottish polls were moving in an OUT direction.

The OUT supporters generally are certainly more vehement, judging by social media. I've ceased chipping in rather than face a torrent of abuse (which doesn't normally stop me ).

I'm unlikely to take up long term residence in UK, I'm not voting and I have no close family likely to be affected by the decision either way. You'd think, going by the reaction of some (usually on the OUT side), that armageddon is at hand.

Somehow, I think the sun will still rise on June 24th

[Horus]

I agree about social media and everyone I ask all say they are voting 'leave' which seems to indicate a massive rejection of the EU, either that or as you say people are just staying below the parapet for fear of being crucified by the avid 'out' voters. I still reckon it will be close with very narrow margins, but we may all be in for a big surprise come Friday the 24th and like the Scottish referendum it will have opened a can of worms and more problems that will divide the country for many years to come.

[LovelyLadyLux]

Lots of brief little articles here tell us all that IF the UK leaves the EU then OUR entire economy will CRASH!

Nothing big but this message has been floating through here.........(will post an article if I see one today)

[newcastle]

Lots of brief little articles here tell us all that IF the UK leaves the EU then OUR entire economy will CRASH!

Nothing big but this message has been floating through here.........(will post an article if I see one today)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e30465885/

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/06/16 ... 88722.html

Who'd have thought little old UK had so much influence

[LovelyLadyLux]

Those are the type of articles here that are floating about. Nothing big or dramatic but seems your VOTE is pretty far reaching - course we are a global economy these days.

[Horus]

Not to mention the onset of World War 3

[LovelyLadyLux]

Seems it is all doom and gloom no matter which way the votes goes - although I suppose it if is "Stay" then status quo will maintain however if it is leave it isn't like the door is going to close within the hour!

AND if stronger better deals can be made won't we all benefit from that? Just as we'll all apparently lose if you leave?

[newcastle]

AND if stronger better deals can be made won't we all benefit from that? Just as we'll all apparently lose if you leave?

If we leave it's unlikely our deals with individual EU states will be better!

Whether they'll be significantly worse, or worse at all, is debatable.

Whether our position a propos non-EU states will better, worse, or the same, is debatable.

Depends which "expert" you want to believe

Although uncontrolled immigration is seen as a threat by many. it's seen as beneficial by others.

Can't make your mind up? Neither can I

[carrie]

My daughter and her husband will vote out, my son too. My grand daughter will vote in as will all her friends. Seems there may be something of a generation gap thing going on.

[Horus]

I think the major factor is that above a certain age you can remember a different country when it was pre EU, younger voters really have nothing to compare it to, so stick with the status quo and I don't mean the rock duo either.

[newcastle]

I think the major factor is that above a certain age you can remember a different country when it was pre EU, younger voters really have nothing to compare it to, so stick with the status quo and I don't mean the rock duo either.

Above a certain age you have difficulty in remembering what....erm....whatever I was...erm...I mean....what what??

[Horus]

Quite a good article on the EU referendum by Simon Heffer of The Telegraph Newspaper
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... ct-britai/