Interesting times ahead

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Interesting times ahead

Post by newcastle »

Momentous events are occurring the the kingdom of Saudi Arabia which may effect not only Egypt but the region as a whole.

King Salman has, it appears, handed over de facto control to his favourite son, the Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, who has commenced a root and branch one-man tri-partite revolution :

1. A round up of "corrupt" royals and business men. The present count includes 11 royal princes....and it's rumoured that hundreds more may join them. The Ritz Carlton Riyadh will be unable to accommodate them all. Prince Al Waleed , one of the richest men in the world, is amongst the first batch...bad news for his projected investments in Egypt.

2. A move away from the ultra-conservative Wahhabi-inspired form of islam practiced in KSA for the last 40 years or so. Allowing women to drive is only the beginning.

3. An intensified confrontation with arch-enemy Iran....siding with USA and (almost unbelievably) Israel.

Without arresting the entire royal family and half the business community, it's difficult to see how corruption will be eliminated. It's so endemic as to be part of the fabric of life. The liberalisation of religion might be welcomed , particularly by the under-30's, but liberalisation of other aspects of Saudi life are probably far from MBS's mind. He's surrounded by "yes men" and appears not to brook discussion, let alone criticism, of his intentions. He's the epitome of a supreme autocrat.

As for confronting Iran more aggressively, the Middle East needs another conflict like a dose of bubonic plague. The war in Yemen will seem like a sideshow.

Hafiz recently pointed to Sisi's record in tackling corruption in Egypt....using a feather duster and the presidential pardon. And Sisi's calls to the clerics to move at least in the direction of the 21st century seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Egypt's parliament (I use the term advisedly) seems to contain individuals with rather odd views....particularly as regards women.

Will MBS be more successful? I think so. I hope so.

Barring the assassin's knife.....or (like king John) acute indigestion by trying to eat too much at once.


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Re: Interesting times ahead

Post by Hafiz »

Difficult to get a clear picture on what is happening, why, and the risks because most western correspondents in the Kingdom are connected to those currently out of favor. A lot of the 'old hands' are burnt out old husks anyway and should be replaced. None saw this coming.

A deal will depend on success in Yemen - its the Princes war and it is going badly. At least one ally seems frozen.His initiative on Qatar seems doomed and this might also affect his prestige.

The economic plan is based on risky advice principally from McKinsey and radical, fast change in traditional societies almost always ends in tears - and blood.

US support seems very strong as is support from young Saudi's - 70% under 30 years.

Leaked German Intelligence assessments of the Prince paint a picture of impetuosity, short-term thinking and lack of Machiavellian maneuver skills.

Its a significant shift in how power has been distributed on an even basis between the descendants of the sons of Ibn Saud and represents their first consolidation in one family and one person.

For Egypt the picture is clear.

The biggest Saudi investor in Egypt is in jail and financially dead.

Corruption will not be tolerated by the Prince - nor will incompetence.

Investment will be removed from non-Saudi locations and be devoted to Saudi's development - and the overseas fortunes of rich Saudi's seized and repatriated if necessary.

The Prince isn't a big fan of Egypt (that's putting it mildly), nor was he of the Brotherhood, and the money/aid to Egypt will reduce.

Egypt's tentative interest in Iran and 'support' for Syria will have penalties as will any close association with the Russians.

Egypt will need to be more effective in its internal terrorism suppression and make new significant military commitments to the war in Yemen and against ISIS.

Egypt will be expected to 'manage' any al Azhar negative reactions to any crackdown on conservative Muslims in Saudi.

A strong anti-Western attitude by Egypt won't get Saudi approval.

Whilst it will pursue its own interests Saudi is part of the US alliance and places that don't follow the US line won't get much positive attention from the Saudi's.

Egyptian companies/executives who do business in Saudi will be subject to the corruption laws - and the death penalty - and there will be much tighter control on the awarding of contracts to Egyptian companies to root out corruption. This may mean that some non-Saudi, non US companies do less well - particularly in the construction industry. It may also mean that overseas investments by Saudi's in places like Egypt are tougher on corruption - but that is far from certain.

The Prince proposes a huge development (hundreds of billions US), in co-operation with Israel, of his northern Red Sea coast. Its unclear and seems to be high level tourism and high technology manufacture. At the least this will have negative impacts in the medium term on Egyptian Red Sea/Coastal tourism. The plan may involve some Egyptian territory - but strictly on Saudi controlled lines. Its all very vague.

As I said in another post on this issue it could be too much, too quickly and too late - but he does get my attention for facing up to the fact that the financial future of oil is dark and radical steps are necessary to create a positive future for his people - and not just for the rich.

What could be more interesting for the region - but is difficult to assess - is if the Prince becomes a hero for youth in the Middle East. This might then mean that old authoritarian elites come under pressure to cut down on corruption, deliver better outcomes for young people and move in a liberal-western direction - but this is very hard to predict. If anything he has little time for regimes that focus on the needs of the few and are incompetent.

I'm not an expert but my guess is that these changes in Saudi are seen by Egypt politicians/business as posing not a few risks/threats to them - both short and medium term. Their silence and the silence of the Cairo press is significant and not accidental. I await a statement from Sisi endorsing the changes/arrests/crackdown on corruption. A big winner will be Jordan. A big looser could be Lebanon if the Prince directs the removal of Saudi investment - unlikely to actually happen but will probably be threatened to force them out of Iranian clutches.
Last edited by Hafiz on Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Interesting times ahead

Post by newcastle »

Agreed Hafiz....although there are pluses and minuses to the possible consequences for Red Sea tourism.

Mohamed bin Salman's Project 2030, involving a new megacity in the area opposite Sharm el Sheikh , and to be linked to it via a bridge across the Straits of Tiran, should be a huge boost for South Sinai....insurgents permitting.

MBS, for all his liberalisation, is still not keen on alcohol or general debauchery, so the Saudi youngsters will have to get their jollies in the more relaxed environment of Egypt.

Nor do I see the "kiss me quick" brigade abandoning the Red Sea for the Hejaz. I suspect the cost of a burger (let alone the unavailability of alcohol) will deter the clients of TUI and Thomas Cook from heading in that direction.

No surprise that it hasn't received much coverage in the Egyptian press.

The Silence of the Sheep.

As you say, more than a few Egyptian business tycoons will be hoping the Saudi winds of change head eastwards. They're probably safe enough. Sisi's no Mohamed bin Salman.
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Re: Interesting times ahead

Post by Hafiz »

Newcastle - I don't disagree.

A big difference could be a shift in mentality. Saudi moves from just paying the bill, any bill, and buying high prestige overseas assets - like The Savoy, and moves to a more demanding role where they demand value and practical benefits for all of their people. It would be a big shift in style for a group that have paid any bill, including extortionate ones, for generations. If this happens it will change the way they invest in and give aid to places like Egypt.

The Prince may be no different and there is a rumor, published by reputable Western media, that he is buying a $US500-600 million 'yacht' - so maybe, in reality, he is no better than the decadent rotters that have run the Kingdom since the 1920's and blown three generations of cash. Its early days and one of the few voices complaining is the Egyptian/Saudi Kashoggi - the son of that international billionaire gun runner and awful person. With enemies like that I better like the Prince.

A long shot. If there was a dramatic increase in international oil prices the pressing need for radical, quick reform would diminish and the Prince/his project might be sidelined. Unlikely, but possible.
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Re: Interesting times ahead

Post by newcastle »

Coincidentally , the Saudi journalist, commentator and author Jamal Khashoggi was interviewed on today's Hardtalk.

He's not related to the late arms dealer Adnan Khashoggi...as far as I know.

He certainly has his doubts about MBS's strategy but his main gripe seems to be that authoritarianism is not the way forward. He lives in self-imposed exile and was a former protégé of Prince Al-Waleed....which may explain his recent criticisms of the arrests.

Mohammed bin Salman's yacht is more than a rumour....he bought from a Russian oligarch in 2015/16. It's some boat.....in the summer of 2014, Bill Gates leased the yacht for US$5 million per week.

Bin Salman bought it on a whim....apparently :urm:

That would certainly fit in with his reputation as a bit of a maverick. I'm not sure whether being obscenely rich necessarily equates with being a bad guy....but who knows?

As you said earlier, it could all end in tears...or blood.
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Re: Interesting times ahead

Post by Hafiz »

The NYT doesn’t much like Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman – possibly because Trump likes him and they hate everything he likes. This must mean that they will ‘go Arabic’ and love everything he hates – like North Korea – applying that great ‘principle’ ‘my enemies enemy is my friend’.

Its written by some child and Kirkpatrick who was the last excellent journalist who bothered to report from Cairo. So it should not be ignored.

Here is their very recent article – I think it goes a bit too far and ignores the Prince’s intentions – everyone knows he is moving too fast, lacks experience and has an odd temperament – so there are no prizes for making those points.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/worl ... alman.html

Interestingly they fail to mention that neither of them are based in Saudi but one of them seems to have been their recently for a few days, neither are Saudi experts, everyone is short on detail and inside info. on this story and no one predicted this – or is much good at ‘knowing’ where it will now go. Therefore the great NYT still suffers from Journalists Disease – opinions without evidence, local contacts and inside information and blindness in seeing it from the actor’s point of view.

It’s also true that neither journalist has ever met the prince and probably not ever met any of his key advisors – whoever these are but I bet they know quite a few of the high profile detained crooks and may sympathize with their point of view. Hardly any sources are named in the article, its high on rhetoric and low on analysis and contains factual errors.
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Re: Interesting times ahead

Post by newcastle »

The NYT article is interesting and could, maybe, be read as a summary of where we are now.

As you say, short on evidence but that the Saudi 'sources' claim anonymity is hardly surprising, The American sources...less so. You are left to make up your own mind as to whether it's an accurate reflection of what's going on - or not.
I think it goes a bit too far and ignores the Prince’s intentions
Again, not surprising as MBS is holding his cards close to his chest. Maybe nobody knows his intentions. Maybe he himself doesn't have a well thought out strategy and is making it up as he goes along.

Interesting, and potentially disturbing times.....
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Re: Interesting times ahead

Post by newcastle »

The BBC's Lyse Doucet was given exclusive access to the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton. An insight into what is going on....

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Re: Interesting times ahead

Post by newcastle »

The BBC programme referred to above :

phpBB [video]
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Re: Interesting times ahead

Post by Hafiz »

The liberal left in the West are missing one big issue on the Prince.

He has clamped down on the extremist Islamic elements in Saudi. That includes not only the mad mullah’s but also the Saudi state funding of Wahabist extremism in mosques around the world and the secret funding to even more extreme elements from rich Saudis and Saudi religious ‘foundations’.

Even the round-ups of the mad mullahs seems to be large – some say thousands – but its hard to be certain. http://nation.com.pk/09-Oct-2017/thousa ... -al-jubeir

If he can achieve this clean up it will be a big thing and a big positive thing for the West.

If he can have an effect on al Azhar – he will achieve more than ‘some others’ have been trying to achieve for ‘a while’. For example public expulsions/excommunications could be a way for al Azhar to go with the crazies. Stopping Saudi funding to al Azhar might be a starting point for these ‘discussions’ and a threat to establish an alternative to al Azhar in Mecca might give an impetus to them.

I'm a bit partial to his aspirations, realize his impetuosity and risk taking but think no-one else in the region is trying to do anything - except to shore up the crumbling edifice. That the west is giving him so little interest is either the Prince's poor handling of PR or bad western media judgement - or poor journalistic skill base and now imprisoned sources. I think the skill base of western journalists in the region is at an historic low point -as is their their laziness in just sticking to the nice hotels in the capital city.
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Re: Interesting times ahead

Post by Who2 »

He could always start by taking back all the crap PA systems dat 'De Brovverhood supplied to every mosque in upper Egypt... 8)
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