The EU referendum

[Horus]

Well unfortunately (from my perspective at least) it looks as if the 'remain' vote will get a narrow victory in the referendum if the Mori Polls are to be believed. Unfortunately it does look as if it will be very close which is probably the worst scenario as I would have liked to have seen a decisive 'in' or 'out' vote. Whichever way it goes I don't suppose it will make much difference to myself for whatever years I have remaining and it is the next generation that will inherit the benefit (or not) of being in the EU, so I will accept the result with good grace and hope that their future bodes well and they do not regret losing the only opportunity they ever had on leaving this Federal European dream should it start to fall apart in the future. And of course I will have the added benefit of schadenfreude when I can sit back and declare when in the future the slightest thing goes wrong "I told you so"

[LovelyLadyLux]

Sorry to those who voted to leave and okee dokee to those who voted to remain.

[newcastle]

Actually....looks like we're OUT!!

I suspect (but who knows) that there is a slight majority in favour of staying .......but they stayed....AT HOME! The LEAVE supporters always looked, throughout the debate, a bit more enthusiastic and. in London at least, weren't deterred by the weather.

Now for the fall out......sterling crash....stock market slump.....

[carrie]

Looks like 52% out and 48% to stay. Lot of MEP's out of a job, no cushy jobs for ex PM's will have to see how it goes.

[Horus]

Well in an amazing change of fortunes it now looks as if the vote may be to leave, as I type this at around 5 a.m. the maths now add up to a leave vote. Scotland as usual clearly voted to remain by about 3-1 with Wales voting to leave on a large turnout, but England has voted decisively to leave and it looks like overall it will carry the vote at around 52% 'out' and 48% for 'remain' so the areas that go against the majority of opinion in the UK as a whole are mainly Scotland, Northern Ireland and the London boroughs none of which is surprising and all on the highest turnout for a British election ever.
I don't think it can be underestimated the strength of feeling with most people in the UK regarding the EU in general and as usual it has been pretty much ignored by very London centric governments of all persuasions.

As expected the Pound Sterling has fallen through the floor, Southern Ireland will no doubt push for a new election headed by Sinn Fein and Nichola Sturgeon will have her excuse to go for Independence once again. We live in interesting times and I am sure there is more to come, but by any measure the people of Britain will have spoken and I doubt if many English people will be too concerned even if it changes the relationship of the United Kingdom as a whole. Now wait for the EU to come back with a lot better deal than Cameron was ever offered in an attempt to keep us in.

[carrie]

If they do Horus, can we accept it after a democratic vote to leave? Is Boris going to be the next PM?

[Horus]

Carrie I cannot see Cameron remaining for very long even though the Tory party will not want a split as this could trigger a general election which they would undoubtedly lose. The other thing is that it needs someone to negotiate the actually exit who has a vested interest in seeing it work for us and not by someone who will not want to be seen as being wrong. As to whether we should accept an alternative offer, well that is a grey area, but should the EU come back with decisive proposals regarding ending the Schengen agreement and doing a 180 degree turn on many of its founding principles for an ever expanding federalist Europe then we may have something to reconsider if it returned to its original idea of just being a free trading block then I reckon most people would be OK with that. So basically it would have to be the EU asking us on what terms we would rejoin the EU and once those terms were acceptable then we could take another vote on whether or not we accepted those terms. However I cannot see that happening and I now predict the start of the demise of the EU with many other countries demanding a similar referendum. My prediction is that we will have turmoil for a short while with some tit for tat by some EU members in an attempt to punish us, but within a couple of years it will all settle down again.

IT IS NOW OFFICIAL

[Bombay]

Looks like 52% out and 48% to stay. Lot of MEP's out of a job, no cushy jobs for ex PM's will have to see how it goes.

No more big exchange rates for your pensions etc. Pound at its lowest since 1985 but of course it will go up a bit.

[Bombay]

I think there will be a second referendum they are not going to invoke article 50 until after German elections end of next year.

And of course with us out of the way the Germans will be in control of Europe, again.

[Horus]

I think there will be a second referendum they are not going to invoke article 50 until after German elections end of next year.

I would not be to sure about that Bombay, although if I were in charge of the negotiation I would use the actual date of implementation as a bargaining chip. As to Germany, I reckon you will now see a strong movement against Frau Merkel and her policies on immigration and the German people will not be too happy with picking up the financial slack after the UK leaves. I reckon that over the next few hours, days, months, we will see some frantic behind the scenes negotiations as they see the imminent demise of the EU as more of the 'richer' countries decide it is not worth the hassle. The pound has of course fallen through the floor, but a lot of that can be laid at Cameron's door for all the doom and gloom they were predicting. We will be in for a rough ride, but with the correct intervention by our banks and governments and once the currency speculators have had their cut, it will all settle down again albeit there will be other internal issues to deal with. In effect nothing has actually changed until we either leave or signal our intent to do so and any Prime Minister worth his salt will manage that transition.

[Horus]

I have to say that this result does not surprise me as even when all the pundits were predicting a 'remain' vote the feedback I was getting from ordinary people was that almost everyone I spoke to was saying they wanted out of the EU. I would further say that the 'leave' vote was reduced somewhat by the fear tactics being used by the government machine, had it not been so the margin for 'leave' would have been far higher. I will also make another prediction again based upon what people tell me and that is that the majority of English people would happily wave goodbye to Scotland if Nichola Sturgeon threatened another leave the UK referendum. Everyone I speak to is tired of Scotland trying to wag the tail of the English dog and have already decided "if they go, they go" so the SNP and the Scottish people must be very careful what they wish for, most English people don't really care one way or another.

One thing is certain, Cameron must not be allowed to railroad us into implementing the article 50 before we are ready to do so. We must put together our own specialised negotiating team before we even make a move, Cameron must not be allowed to behave in a peevish manner and say "that's what you voted for so now I am going to do it tomorrow" the clock only starts ticking from when we decide it starts.

7.21 am and the official 'leave' result has been announced

[Horus]

Cameron Resigns
He will stay on until the party conference in October
The good part is that he will not invoke article 50 immediately and will leave that task and the negotiations to the new Prime Minister, good news all round.

[Who2]

So all those Ex-Pat Europeans will probably have to start visiting the visa offices just like us..

[Horus]

As we speak the Bank of England chairman Mark Carney is speaking and he is saying that we have 10 times the liquidity than before the last crash and it will support the pound. The FTSE index is starting to rise as he is speaking and has just gone back above 6000.

[newcastle]

Although I wish I'd changed the 3 grand I brought over last week.....Ill just sit on it for another fortnight and wait for the EGP to continue its downward spiral.

[Horus]

I am sure that one will balance the other eventually

[Horus]

I see that Jean Claude Junkers is almost demanding that we impliment our exit rather quickly and not wait until we elect another PM, we should tell him to get stuffed and we will do it in our own time. he doesn't realise that it is that sort of attitude that is at the heart of it all.

[newcastle]

I see that Jean Claude Junkers is almost demanding that we impliment our exit rather quickly and not wait until we elect another PM, we should tell him to get stuffed and we will do it in our own time. he doesn't realise that it is that sort of attitude that is at the heart of it all.

If the silly sod hadn't been at the forefront of the rejection of many of the changes requested by Cameron, UK might have stayed in and the EU wouldn't be in the pickle it is now.

I guess he's worried that there may not be an EU...and a job for him....if the rot spreads.

[Horus]

I agree with all of that Newcastle
I see that Jean-Marie Le Pen has changed her avatar to that of a UK Union Flag, maybe that explains the urgency from Junkers and Francois Hollande in trying to stem revolts in the rest of the EU and that is why they are so keen for us to get it over with, maybe we have also done the rest of them a huge favour by voting out.

[newcastle]

Time to put on my mischievous hat

Back in 1975, the last time we had a referendum on whether we should continue to be a member of the European Union, the Government spelled out in advance that it would not necessarily do what the people decided.

The Labour government of Harold Wilson made it clear the referendum was advisory — the ultimate opinion poll if you like — but that “the British parliament in Westminster retains the final right to repeal the Act which took us into the Market on January 1, 1973”.

People seem not to understand that this is still the case. The referendum next week is not binding and the result does not constitute a final irrevocable decision either way.



http://www.standard.co.uk/business/anth ... 72621.html

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... parliament