The Dam.

[Hafiz]

The Dam.

Here is a spectacular photo of the Ethiopian Renaissance dam

The only way to get a sense of scale is via the trucks in the middle, middle distance. I assume they are 40-90 ton trucks about 30 feet high.

The photo makes the simple point that this dam isn’t like the Aswan. Rather it’s a valley dam of great depth.

What also gets lost is that the dam is mainly about electricity with Ethiopia building a network of electricity lines to adjoining countries like Sudan, Uganda and Kenya and hoping to make a deal of money out of supply. Because its green energy the opportunities are large and even Saudi is preparing plans to import this electricity. https://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/ ... e-oil-gas/. The Egyptian government is catalytic at this prospect and also at the substantial Gulfie agricultural investments in Ethiopia. Someone has no friends and some remember Toshka.

What also gets forgotten is that Ethiopia is currently electricity poor and unless it does something like the dam will stay so as well as economically poor.

What also gets forgotten is that Ethiopia is very poor – about 1/3rd the income per head of Egypt. You tell me which is the better investment of the people's money - and the more moral.

It’s a great photo of an amazing engineering project.



This dam is being built for about ¼ of the cost of the entirely botched Suez Canal Extension in Egypt and 1/10th to 1/20th of the cost of the New Imperial Capital that no one needs.

Its interesting that simple Ethiopia calls it Renaissance – not Mengistu Dam (full of blood) or after some butcher/leader that they currently love and will soon hate. Its an attempt to link it with one of the greatest intellectual and cultural movements in the history of the world. Unexpected. Salini the lead contractor is a Milanese firm, helped to rescue the Nubian monuments (Egypt did nothing even though its dam did the damage), is a major world dam builder and even expands canals – the Panama. Unlike the Supreme Militarios Engenerios of Egyptos they know what they are doing and don’t blow their canal budget by 220%.

Unlike Egypt when Ethiopia has something big and complicated they give it to world experts – not Orascom, Military Engineering or Arab (Mis)Contractors who have little work outside Egypt because they are not much good, because no one will give them such work and because the competition kills them

[Horus]

It is certainly impressive

[Dusak]

As a retired construction worker, I see this as a truly magnificent creation, not just a load of concrete and steel. For me it has produced an aesthetic vision of beauty to this valley. I hope that sometime in the future documentaries are released showing this project from start to finish, 2021 I think, five years to fill it to capacity. I also see it becoming a major tourist attraction, further enhancing the countries tourist industry as a whole.

[Brian Yare]

I hope that sometime in the future documentaries are released showing this project from start to finish, 2021 I think, five years to fill it to capacity. I also see it becoming a major tourist attraction, further enhancing the countries tourist industry as a whole.

It is the "five years to fill it to capacity" that is worrying for Egypt and Sudan. During that time there will be much less water in the Lower Nile.

But this may give more opportunity to visit the sites lost below Lake Nasser as I would expect Egypt to allow the water level to go down so that the Nile does not dry up!

[A-Four]

I hope that sometime in the future documentaries are released showing this project from start to finish, 2021 I think, five years to fill it to capacity. I also see it becoming a major tourist attraction, further enhancing the countries tourist industry as a whole.

It is the "five years to fill it to capacity" that is worrying for Egypt and Sudan. During that time there will be much less water in the Lower Nile.

But this may give more opportunity to visit the sites lost below Lake Nasser as I would expect Egypt to allow the water level to go down so that the Nile does not dry up!

From what I have heard, the recent agreement is, for what they are worth, are that the period to fill the day is to be set at between 5 and 15 years,.......we shall only see.

[Hafiz]

It was always around 5 years but sad Egyptian leaders have a need to acquire public achievements.

The big offer to Sudan was that the dam would regulate the flow and avoid the current on/off/mess.

The paradox/hypocrisy in all of this is that Egypt has no leg to stand on and that is entirely its fault. The only treaty is between Egypt and Sudan and when under Nasser Ethiopia applied to join the treaty and the UK backed this Nasser rejected the idea in language which was worse than contemptuous. Therefore there is no treaty about the Blue Nile nor any treaty that includes E. As a result Egypt has not one legal leg to stand on and this is entirely a problem of its own creation.

The attitude of Ethiopia, Sudan and Uganda towards Egypt is vile and based on lifetimes of being treated as sub-human. Egypt has built this problem which is why not one western government will help it on this matter. As with many of its foreign relations problems, assassinating King Hussein of Jordana grandfather on the Temple Mount or trying to organize a coup in Saudi in the '60's, no sane place will support its stupidity.

That the Egyptian people are unprepared to hold these fools to account is beyond me.

The death of the chief engineer of the project by gunshot sitting in his car in stalled Addis traffic 5 months ago is interesting. The Addis coronal inquiry says it was suicide but no one can find a crisis he faced and why would a suicidee do it at 8 am in stuck traffic. I think I know what happened but there is a need of Ethiopia to not inflame the situation. Maybe an Egyptian Major General will meet the same fate. Who would miss him?

The situation that is emerging is of major US support for Ethiopia and growing Arab support and that gives E some power. The sub-Saharan's hate Egypt and support E so that is more power. The key factor is the truly amazing new PM who is too good to be true and surely a primary target for some local lunatics who would benefit from his death.

Meanwhile, and for 30 years, Egypt funds E insurgents/separatists/Muslim fundamentalists in E whilst saying they are evil when they appear next to the parental cash-register. If there is any doubt, my support is for the E who have had an awful 50 or maybe 90 years (the Italian butchery including prohibited weapons of mass destruction and for which there were no War Crimes Tribunals including for Italy's monster like behaviors in Tunisia and particularly Libya against civilians or primitive tribals).

[Hafiz]

Thug on the Nile.

We all know that Egypt has threatened to bomb Ethiopia if it builds the dam and has made these threats back to Mubarak.

What would be the legal/international law basis for such a strike is interesting. Its almost certain against international law but the lawyers in Cairo who advise the government can barely spell, give shocking advice and therefore will never get a job elsewhere.

This silly thuggery goes back further, and further south. In 2004 Tanzania wanted to build a few small dams associated with Lake Victoria (the Blue Nile is responsible for less than 10% of the flows that enter Egypt – probably less, so this initiative was trivial). Mubarak did the standard that made him hated in sub- Saharan Africa and threatened bombing. D Cheshire, Control Over the Nile, pp34-35.

Few remember that the current Sudanese government tried to kill Mubarak in 1995 whilst he was in Abbas following which they threatened to divert the inflow to Lake Nasser. Wits thought it would take ‘knowledgeable’ Egyptian Ministry of Water staff 5 years to wake up. http://www.theafricareport.com/irrigation.html. Mubarak threatened to bomb them.

If you are a useless negotiator and/or hated by your neighbors I suppose killing makes sense.

The above article, informed, says that Sudan has been taking more than its agreement allowance of water and won’t go back. Pretty much everyone wants more and all at Egypt’s expense.

It also says that current Ethiopian irrigation land for a population similar to Egypt is c. 50,000 feddans – Egypt has more than 50-100 times more irrigated land.

An acerbic but intelligent 1997 article on the revolting waste of water and of money in the Sinai reclamation project – a precursor to Toshka but another of many Titanic government agricultural projects. All sunk with big loss of life and all were based on vanity. https://www.mepc.org/node/4673. Allegedly 6 million acres - that’s bigger than that tosser Toshka. A related and recent up date on selling Nile water to Israel. http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publ ... er-israel/

Such projects have been raised in formal talks and used by Egypt’s enemies/those who want more to undermine Egypt’s water claims and claims of water efficiency.

As far as the bombing threats are concerned the Egyptian Air Force failed in 67 and 73. In one or both wars most of its planes were destroyed on the ground. In Iraq 1,2 and 3 this immense airforce was not asked to participate by the allies. I wonder why.

It is not active in the current Yemeni war but the UAE and Saudi Airforces are and it appears to have failed in Sinai and has now handed over responsibility to the Israeli air force who are using Egyptian airspace and dropping bombs on Egyptian territory with the approval of Egypt.

Therefore a threat of an Egyptian Ariel bombing can be safely ignored. Its possible most leaders in the region suspect this but proving it would involve going to war. The avoidance of all conflict for the army, navy and airforce in Yemen, the extreme difficulty and importance of Yemen and the desperate need the Crown Prince has for a victory make Egypt's performance/inactivity very odd.