Tourism in Egypt Stats.

[Hafiz]

The link below is to a recent article on Tourism. There is not much new in the article it but it points out how the trade has come back from past problems (1998 Luxor 60 killed, 2006 Dahab 23 killed).

Whats interesting in the article is a table, which shows how tourism grew from 4 million in 2002 to 14 million in 2010 – that’s a 700% increase in 8 years. So the trade must have been booming in those years, infrastructure, hotels and restaurants must have been built or renovated, family wealth made and invested for a rainy day. Well maybe not.

I’m not an economist but that graph looks strangely like the spending orgy in the West at the same time and also like the stock price rises that happened at the same time. So my point is that the levels of the past few years may not have been sustainable, especially when you add the economic crisis and the Egyptian ‘revolution’

The article mentions the stable/growing Russian/Coast trade and suggests that short flight times, direct flights and Russian speaking staff may play a role in attracting the vodka lovers The frequently quoted figure for the coast is 80% of total tourism and, given the collapse in Luxor and Cairo tourism, the graph shows that Egypt is now almost totally dependent on the coast trade. As an after thought, given the Russian attachment to hard liquor and given the poor local spirits, they must be prepared to pay a lot for an imported drink.



http://www.economist.com/news/business/ ... 042ad12e30

[Zooropa]

Perhaps the Russian market could be a lifeline.

Given what they used to be used to and to an extent still do back home, they may like the idea of not tripping over a policeman on every corner.

They certainly wont have to put up with that in Luxor!

[Who2]

How long have I been saying that, 'take my breath away, Hurgharda is not Egypt it's Ibetha in the 90's, as was Lloret de Mar in the 70's it's, a few clever entrepreneurs making money off young disposable incomes, the drugs, sex, booze and music also add a touch of youthfulness, 'if you can remember those heady days...
ps: my pals at manumission were taking £50k a night, not watching coronation street.

[Brian Yare]

It would be interesting to see Tourism figures excluding the Red Sea resorts.

[Chocolate Eclair]

Zilch and getting lower, there was an article in my wife's magazine from February 2013, warning tourists that there were to be serious power cuts in the Summer, and they have started if yesterday was anything to go by, was anything done to eleviate the coming problem? it seems as though people here do not expect these stories to get out to the rest of the world. Even the murders that happen in Luxor reach European Press, the sisters at the Pink House, reached the German Press, as did the young man murdered and supposedly dismembered at the bus depot. all this talk about picking up is right, Luxor will pick up again, but only when people start to do something about the mess. Sitting back and Insh Allahing will do nothing at all, just provide frustration and twisted minds. The place has a vacancy for a great leader with vision and ideas, but even those will require hard cash, and the Country is having a hard time of it with no end in sight. Corruption I would guess is higher than the Mubarak era, if the truth was known, as with poverty.

[Hafiz]

Brian Yare - I'd also like to know the breakdown. I've never seen figures on duration: which is probably more important. All you get is figures like 10 million tourists rather than 70 million tourist days - or it could be 14 million tourist days. Big difference. The published figures never include total tourist days which tends to confirm my view that the Tourist Ministry are not very good at their job and this also is confirmed by their other amateur hour activities. They don't publish figures on total or average spent. There is a big difference between 10 million 5 star tourists versus 10 million backpackers. Like a lot of government stats they never publish regional breakdowns which I suspect is to hide the small benefits of tourism to most regions.

All I know from published figures is about 80% for the coast. Duration on the coast is, I assume, 1 to 2 weeks which is going to be much longer than stays in Cairo, Aswan, Luxor and Alex. From what I know, those who own or lease units in large developments on the coast, would tend to stay longer (but spend less per day). This long stay coast business seems to have been growing for the last decade or so.

I assume that most stays (other than long stays in Luxor) in Egypt are about 2 weeks which, if you spread over the coast, Cairo (mandatory for 1st timers - Pyramids) , Luxor, Aswan and Alex doesn't leave much time for places in addition to the coast. I understand that the 1 or two week Luxor tourists looking for sun exists but is it stable and can it compete with the sand and sea?

Maybe the lesson is that if you want people to stay a long time (and to spend a deal of money) you need a place that you can develop into a resort. This might explain the huge investment on the coast over the past decades and the new Qatari proposal to invest $5 billion in Med. resort developments. The lack of large scale investment in Luxor over the past decades reflects the fact that investors know they can make better money on the coast. I'm not aware of any big money put into Cairo hotels in recent years, well before the Revolution, which maybe part of the same decision making. The investment is following the tourists and the tourists are chasing the new developments which have the added benefit of security. I get the impression that large scale tourist resorts in Luxor have not done well.

As an aside lots of research on backpackers states that they are a good tourist business. They don't spend a lot of money but they stay a long time (although the lack of night life in Luxor wouldn't hold them for long).

The above is all speculation but I am prepared to bet that the city administration/local tourist authority/government have no good system for counting tourist numbers/stay/spend/opinion of stay and change over time. Once you have these figures you can plan for the future and God knows there is lots of free time at the moment in Luxor to plan for the future. For example I suspect that change was well underway before the revolution and this involved shorter stays, a lower spend per day from a lower demographic tourist, more negative impressions and a lower share of absolute Egypt tourist numbers and spend. I would also bet that there are significant changes in nationality in Luxor and in Egypt and that Luxor's share of these new nationalities has been small. If this is the case it gives you some clues about future investment or what market you need to win back from the other Egyptian tourist destinations.

The recent local initiative by tourist business to promote themselves and to get away from passively waiting for help from the Ministry in Cairo seems a really good thing. From what is said on this forum this new initiative seems to have a vague leadership. The city/Governate/leading tourist organizations Sseem no help and are weak or indecisive on the tourist problem. This is very strange given the financial interest of the city in tourism. Someone is going to have to lead all the competing interests to clean up the city, establish law and order, offer incentives to investment and develop separate marketing. Nothing I have read indicates that the Governor,MPs or mayor are taking an interest so I guess that things will continue to drift.

The current law and order problem, whilst serious, is not the only tourism issue and, even fixed, will not bring back the tourist numbers as in the past. The market has changed and many tourists are looking for something new.

If anyone has some good tourist stats please post them.