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Columnist Dr Mahmoud Emara addresses the issue of Egypt’s wheat cultivation and self-sufficiency that were brought up by President Mohamed Morsi last week.

“I do not know how President Morsi dared to announce, live on TV and without batting an eye, that our wheat production for this year is nine and a half tonnes. And then some claimed that in two or three years, we would be exporting wheat!” he exclaimed.

Dr Emara says he would have done things differently than the minister of supply, who the columnist says is not doing a proper job. He first would have banned importing wheat starting in February, so farmers would have a place to store their high-quality wheat, which is now being stored in open storage spaces, susceptible to rodents and bacteria.

Secondly, he would have prepared for the harvest by supplying the appropriate rag bags instead of the flimsy ones. He states that Egypt loses between 15% and 20% of its wheat production annually during transport and storage.

Thirdly, he would have waited until the end or half way through the harvest to determine the average wheat production for each feddan (175 square metres) of land. He states that according to recent reports by the Ministry of Agriculture, Egypt cultivates on average three million feddans for wheat production each year, and that the average of each feddan is 15 ardeb (150 kilograms). This means that Egypt produces on average 6,750,000 ardebs annually. Then 15% of it is lost in transport and storage, bringing the total around 5,750,000 ardebs.

Out of the produced wheat, around 3.5 million ardebs are the government’s supply, and the rest goes to the farmers.

Egypt imported 11 million tonnes out of its 15 million tonne consumption from July 2012 until April 2013. According to customs, the harbours contain 9.5 million tonnes of wheat. In addition, the country can only store four million tonnes in the allotted 362 storage spaces.

“Therefore, if the production is increased by 30-50%, where will the surplus be stored?” Dr Emara asks.

The columnist says that Morsi should have reconsidered his statements instead of depending on empty words, which are said for the sake of propaganda.

Dr Emara does agree with Morsi that Egypt can become a wheat exporter, but a number of things must be done in order to achieve self-sufficiency.

First, the cultivation research department needs to be backed up financially. Second, 50,000 feddans needs to be planted with high-quality wheat kernels in November 2013 to be able to produce the seeds needed for the extra three million feddans.

Third, these seeds need to be planted in the 2014-2015 cultivation season, to be harvested in June 2015. This will lead to self-sufficiency in bread, but five million tonnes will still be needed for other products.

The extra wheat production means that 250 cement storage spaces need to be built, as well as the implementation of mechanised cultivation. In addition, half a million feddans need to be allocated for the cultivation of corn (5.5 million tonnes of corn are imported annually) to be mixed with the wheat for producing bread.

The last element is the founding of an industrial area in Owaynat for the production of meat and leather. The area will be operated using a million pieces of cattle from the Nile Basin countries. So, Egypt can export and consume meat for EGP 30 per wholesale kilogram. This means that Egypt will not need to cultivate a million feddans of alfalfa, which will save water (each feddan of alfalfa consumes around 10,000 cubic metres of water).

The project will also fortify Egypt’s relations with the Nile Basin countries, and will achieve self-sufficiency in the frozen meats sector. With the cooperation of the Italians, the project will also allow Egypt to export leather.

“In short, this country has all the capabilities, resources and expertise, but poverty, hunger and backwardness will remain synonyms to the capability of our rulers, who are poor of mind,” Dr Emara concludes.

This means that Egypt produces on average 6,750,000 ardebs annually. Then 15% of it is lost in transport and storage, bringing the total around 5,750,000 ardebs.

Out of the produced wheat, around 3.5 million ardebs are the government’s supply, and the rest goes to the farmers.

Dusak wrote:I've seen grain crops growing in upper Egypt and I'm lead to believe that they receive no subsidies on fertilizers, they buy their own. As far as I'm aware they also buy their own seed. I was also lead to believe that they could keep or sell the crop as they wished. In my friends village there is a mill that is continually producing flour from the local harvests. Their grain is stored in a steel hundred gallon drum for up to a year, not only to feed themselves, but their hens as well. They refill when the grain price is low, produce flour when that commodity's price increases to make their own bread.