Luxor4u

The world famous Max Planck Institute has modeled mid century effects on the Middle East and North Africa of a 2C (the now agreed Paris Target) rise in global temperatures and has found that this might mean much higher temperature changes for these regions compared with the rest of the world raising the question of large scale social,economic and political disruption and mass irregular migration to Europe.

The report talks of an increase of 500% in the number of extremely hot days for the region.

It’s a regional prediction in a science where precise regional predictions are both difficult and rare. On the other hand the reputation of the Institute for good science is beyond question but the involvement (how much?) of the Cyprus Institute and Greek researchers in the study does detract from its credibility in this difficult area of research so unless you hold Cypriot research in high regard it might pay to be a bit cautious.

Here are some quotes from its media package:

‘In future, the climate in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa could change in such a manner that the very existence of its inhabitants is in jeopardy,
… The goal of limiting global warming to less than two degrees Celsius, agreed at the recent UN climate summit in Paris, will not be sufficient to prevent this scenario. The temperature during summer in the already very hot Middle East and North Africa will increase more than two times faster compared to the average global warming.
…..
Even if Earth’s temperature were to increase on average only by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold. By mid-century, during the warmest periods, temperatures will not fall below 30 degrees at night, and during daytime they could rise to 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit). By the end of the century, midday temperatures on hot days could even climb to 50 degrees Celsius (approximately 122 degrees Fahrenheit). Another finding: Heat waves could occur ten times more often than they do now.
….
The research team recently also published findings on the increase of fine particulate air pollution in the Middle East. It was found that desert dust in the atmosphere over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and in Syria has increased by up to 70 percent since the beginning of this century. This is mainly attributable to an increase of sand storms as a result of prolonged droughts. It is expected that climate change will contribute to further increases, which will worsen environmental conditions in the area.’

The take home seems to be that negative effects for the region might be quite bad even if global targets are met.

I'm sure the government will get to it after finishing the new capital. The security services have a 'can do' ethos - maybe climate change is a job for them.

I forgot to post the link: https://www.mpg.de/10481936/climate-cha ... rch_topic=

Hafiz wrote: I'm sure the government will get to it after finishing the new capital.

Yes, I am sure.

A big problem with reports on climate change is that they can get a bit hysterical...and this one's a classic......with the result that they are easy to demolish by the naysayers .

This is a pity as the kernel of truth is then binned with the rest as being alarmist.

What is indisputable is that the earth's climate is warming up.

It is equally indisputable that the impact of homo sapiens on the planet over the last 3 centuries is a major contributory factor to this warming (but not the only one).

I would also suggest that, as as species, we are far too dumb, too focused on the 'here and now', to even reduce, let alone eliminate, our part in the problem.

P.S. Speaking personally, I don't think it's mathematically possible for the number of extremely hot days in Hurghada to increase by 500%...unless we lengthen the year

Well the weather in Luxor is certainly up and down, 43C then 35C, last year it was constant by mid April, so we are a month later this year. 5 years ago I was in a coffee shop with big coat, scarf, tee shirt under my shirt, that was the start of October, has not been like that for a few years. I am sure when the Dr gets his T.A.R.D.I.S going again we will all be transported to a better place. Maybe he should rename it EasyTard. The budget travel specialist.

Well, I don't know how the rest of humanity will cope, but 'm British, so will weather the storm, or in this case, the heat.

Stiff upper lip and all that "D"

Dusak wrote:Well, I don't know how the rest of humanity will cope, but 'm British, so will weather the storm, or in this case, the heat.

You have reminded me of the childhood ditty:

Whether the weather be cold
Or whether the weather be hot
We'll weather the weather
Whatever the weather
Whether we like it or not.

There was an old shepherd stood up on a hill
wondered whether the wether would weather the weather
or whether the weather the wether would kill.

Newcastle, I agree that some reports are hysterical. Don't think the Plank Institute's track record falls in this category. Greenpeace, WWF etc yes.

My point is that their study states that climate change in the Middle East may be more negative than for other regions. That is a different point from climate change is happening and climate change will be bad.

I don't think NASA are hysterics. They claim that the current drought in the Eastern Mediterranean is likely the worst in 900 years.

Some quotes:
"A new NASA study finds that the recent drought that began in 1998 in the eastern Mediterranean Levant region, which comprises Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, and Turkey, is likely the worst drought of the past nine centuries."

.."If we look at recent events and we start to see anomalies that are outside this range of natural variability, then we can say with some confidence that it looks like this particular event or this series of events had some kind of human caused climate change contribution,"

They use tree rings to reconstruct a weather history.
http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/201 ... -900-years

Last summer we had the worst drought ever for this area. We were getting temperatures in the high 80ies and low 90ies in early spring and it stayed dry all summer. Wildfires started and the smoke ash covered the house and made breathing difficult. We'd never had this problem before so nobody was really prepared. Was awful.

Is climate changing? Seems to be changing here and I'd say that while we have the monetary ability to prepare we're not and we're going to suffer some pretty catastrophic results.

So if those southern hordes head north it'll be a case of.......

out of the frying pan....into the fire

We can all look on the bright side, according to the experts, our warmer winter months are having a positive affect on carbon emissions. But with the melting of the ice fields due also to the warmer climate, I don't think that it will be a benefit for that long. The world production of wellingtons has quadrupled in the last four years due to the increased rainfall and flooding. They don't sell them on our souq at the moment, but it will not be long before we see the Chinese made 'one size fits all' on sale.