Luxor4u

Obviously a place where even after 37 years of failure, war crimes, repression, murder of dissenters, no free media, economic chaos, no rule of law and corruption produces no more than the military forcing him out - in a polite manner. And they call themselves freedom loving and brave. Really.

Apparently the likely replacement is identical to the incumbent – corrupt and violent. His team will probably be the same as present incumbents. Here is one of many examples of a chap promoted to currently lead their airforce: http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressr ... gabe.shtml

With the raised expectations of the people the future should be an interesting time.

The BBC interviews with middle class, black, locals show a naivety and expectation that 37 years can be reversed instantly, which makes even Brexiteers look rational. I guess ‘everyone’ has to believe in a silver bullet.

Some practical hints for ‘other places’. Apparently the government can’t pay the police so the police are directed to get their pay by road blocks and traffic ‘infringement’ fines from drivers. Because hard cash is very hard to come buy, the cops have electronic devices to deduct the ‘fine’ from bank accounts (the whole cash/currency problem is another and complicated story). Now there is an idea. Also people are frank that the local education system is hopeless and that education in an adjoining country the only way to go. All those interviewed described that conversations with other than closest friends and family was always very, very guarded and all Internet communications assumed to be monitored.

On some positive notes: public officials, MP’s, senior members of the party and ‘connected persons’ drive round in S class Mercs, - there are always winners in poor countries. The seizing of assets of outsiders and ‘political enemies’/enemies of the state/terrorists was a great way to go – if you need to reward supporters. State control of the economy is a perfect solution – if you want to control the collapse it will inevitably cause. South Africa always backs its friends – particularly if they are monsters. A state controlled Electoral Commission will always deliver the ‘desired result’. A ‘correct’ media will always support the government. North Korea is always a loyal friend and Gaddafi a great democrat. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/88 ... th-brigade. China can always be relied on and likes investing in bad places – a useful thing for ‘others’ to know: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42012629

Useful for others to know is that 37 year presidencies need to be extended. Maybe 40 year terms – with the right to 2 successive terms – should be the model for ‘others to follow’ because great work requires long terms and old leaders. You can never be too old for power.

Its to Europe’s credit that he has been banned for years and South Africa’s shame that they ‘look after’ him. Uganda and Nigeria behaved little better than you would expect. The debate in the Commonwealth over the years was full of accusations of white racism and colonialism but never about Mugabe’s theft, violence and anti-democracy. All the Commonwealth did was suspend him – 14 years ago – and never expelled him. Obviously the suspension achieved little more than the Commonwealth ever did in any of its many other ‘bad cases’

Why he is now not before an international court for crimes against his people is the only question I have. A check of his overseas bank accounts is well overdue.

It is likely that the current impasse is about his assets and immunity – and that of his wife, henchmen, feckless, rich, drug-addicted children and getting some comfortable place to take him and a couple of planes for his loot – with promises never to send him to The Hague. Those waiting to assume power probably want their ‘fair share’ of the Mubarak pot. (a lesson for some others – never put much of your theft in local fixed assets – diamonds, cash and mobile assets are the best - as Grace Mugabe is finding out only too late) I bet South Africa is only too keen to take this awful brood.

I know from experience that it’s a beautiful, bountiful and resource rich country – degraded to beggary and crookedness by 4 decades of misrule – not the first or the last. I hope the future is better but fear the worst because this looks like a transfer of power from one branch of its mafia family to another – with the rules staying the same. There are other places that thought that everything would change – but instead everything stayed the same – or got worse with the other branch running things.

No greater evidence is required that Mugabe's mind is wandering than the attempt to foist his wife "Gucci" Grace on Zimbabwe as his successor.What was he thinking of? Her qualifications to run an African state extend to little more than an ability to type her own executive memos.

Oh......and an insatiable appetite to acquire and spend vast amounts of state resources and ignore the plight of the population. As that's the sine qua non of governance in Africa, maybe she was over-qualified.

Be that as it may, former vice-president Mnangagwa could see his opportunity to lead the state as Mugabe's successor disappearing over the horizon. He may have been inclined to bide his time and await the grim reaper coming for the 93 year old Mugabe. His dismissal and the emergence of Grace as Mugabe's heir must have been intolerable. Their mutual loathing is well-documented.

I would put money on the army's move coming as no surprise to Mnangagwa. But he's in no hurry to return to Harare until Mugabe resigns or is removed. He fears that, just as treading on a dead wasp can be painful, returning while Mugabe is still technically in office could be dangerous.

But let's be optimistic and assume that Mugabe really is done for this time. That he will either cut a deal and go...or be impeached and removed. What then for Zimbabwe?

As Hafiz says....more of the same.

The likely successor is Mnangagwa...the army's choice. The factional struggles within ZANU-PF will continue. Whether economic or democratic reform gets a look in, I doubt...... at least in the short term. Nor do I hold out much hope for a government of national unity while Zimbabwe addresses its economic woes. A commission of reconciliation? Forget it!

Where are the masses in all this? After years of repression they had a brief rally to voice enthusiasm for Mugabe's political demise (a bit premature as it turned out) but I don't see them having any say in what happens next. Mnangagwa's mates in the army and security forces are still around to quell any civil unrest.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) will want to see constitutionality upheld...so the removal of Mugabe (unless he goes voluntarily) may take weeks or months.

If and when the dust settles, there is the basket case economy to address. I suppose sanctions might be lifted but it will take more than that to reverse 37 years of decline. And that assumes Mnangagwa and the powers behind him change the habits of a lifetime.

I see no reason to suppose this.

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

Mugabe has finally handed in his resignation ............... good riddance
Time for the next despot to step up

Before the euphoria is replaced by reality, I thought this might make you smile....

Horus wrote:Mugabe has finally handed in his resignation ............... good riddance
Time for the next despot to step up

Yep....and in Mnangagwa they have someone who was Mugabe's henchman and enforcer, an active participant in many past atrocities and in no sense a democrat. He will focus on consolidating the power of his Lacoste faction within ZANU-PF.

I think the best that Zimbabwe can hope for is that, as a pragmatist, he concentrates on addressing the economic woes and does something about the 95% unemployment and hyper-inflation that makes people's lives so miserable.

Elections are due next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see them postponed and there may be a pruning of army and political figures with whom Mnangagwa is not entirely comfortable. A government of national unity is a possibility.....but an unlikely one in my view. Having gained supreme power, it seems improbable that Mnangagwa will be willing to share it.

I am sitting here desperately trying to recall just one African nation that has not gone down the crapper since it became independent.

Horus wrote:I am sitting here desperately trying to recall just one African nation that has not gone down the crapper since it became independent.

Botswana springs to mind.

The small island states of Seychelles, Mauritius & Cape Verde are technically African and reasonably successful.

After that, it becomes a little more difficult, and you're left looking at a basket of 'curate's eggs'. How much rottenness are you prepared to stomach

It's also right to consider whether some states have been left truly independent or are still subject to continued meddling by their former masters....or others.

There are a range of criteria to consider when it comes to assessing how sh*tty a country is - to continue your metaphor.

And I'm sure at least one member of this forum would argue that the fate of many African states was sealed by their colonial masters rather than events post-independence

Well done for finding 1 country amid an excess of 50 that has something amounting to a stable country and no I am not allowing you to add those offshore islands to raise your score level. Maybe the fact that it is 70% desert with a population of around 2 million may have helped to keep it stable. As for meddling by their ex colonial masters? You need to turn your eyes towards China the true colonialists.

Agree with Botswana - and their success isn't based on any of the natural resources - oil, gas, copper, gold, diamonds and soil of their failed or failing neighbors. Unfortunately a full analysis of why they have been successful would draw attention to the scores of failures and which UN report would want that - or to know why places succeed? If we knew the keys to success in Africa thousands of UN workers and consultants would be out of their tax free, high paid, low energy jobs.

Interestingly Botswana has never had or wanted a 'great leader'. That's a lesson for others. I think its near universally true that every country with a 'great leader' has ended up a mess - except for its ruling class.

Disagree with Mauritius and Seychelles - they are almost as bad as the Crown Colonies for tax crookedness and moving/hiding dirty money.

There are positive signs - Tunisia is heading in the right direction, Kenya staggers in the same direction, Ethiopia continues to surprise, Rwanda tries to rebuild and forget. For all its faults Algeria is stable and not too corrupt. If it ever opens its doors it could be rich - and steal tourists away from dusty, dry places. Morocco is making concessions - slowly. On the other hand Nigeria for all its oil just gets worse and much of West Africa is an unflushed toilet.

My guess is that I am a candidate for the 'one member'. If so, that's wrong. Its a lot more than Imperialism and its rushed exit.

The very fashionable academic left/Saidists/Post-Modernists who run this line are monomaniacs. For example when they attack 'Imperialism' they forget/ignore the mess that the Ottomans left behind because they focus only/principally on 'white power'. On this view Egypt has no responsibility for what has happened in The Sudan - and forget the effects of centuries of slavery and exploitation. On their view its only white people who do bad things.

Re the Islands. I never said they were down the crapper. What I said is that they were on the same moral level as the tax evading UK crown colonies. Places that do little but process money to make sure rich people evade the taxes in the countries that made them rich and gain all the financial benefits of political/business stability, armies, judges, police, skilled workforces for which they paid little or nothing. There is also the issue that a deal of this money in these places is just dirty - drugs/guns/bribes/or worse.

Yes I agree that the Swiss and Luxes should be added to this moral hell. The Irish are there and it is a scandal that no-one is in jail for their economic/banking mess. In my view there are links between the moral blindness in an Ireland which allows itself to be used for money moving on the one hand and, on the other, its a place that is scandal plagued with no prosecution of its business and political elite - most of who have made their quick, and often speculative, billions is questionable ways.

So my point isn't just about just about crapper places but also about moral vacuums - sometimes they go together - sometimes they don't. In Rhodesia's case they go together. Sometimes you start as a moral vacuum and end up a crapper - sometimes not. If you are a crapper place its rare for there to be much morality - but there are exceptions - like Botswana and (maybe) Costa Rica. Places like Turkey emerged from their mess and, until recently, showed great promise. Places like Thailand were never colonized but behave no better than the worst that were, whilst colonized Singapore has created one of the wealthiest/most stable places on earth out of a swamp in 150 years. There are lots of exceptions to popular generalizations.

As far as the Brits in Egypt - the story is far from told. One of the few good things that could be said is that subsequent 'developments' make it look quite good - by comparison. I imagine Australian time in PNG is still being told as a heroes tale - until the truth comes out.

My various memories of Rhodesia/Zimbawbe include deep divisions in the white community - urban whites who were regarded as lower middle-class trash by the rich rural/mining class. The latter were also split into a mad, bad group and a liberal group. My experience is that many were lazy, rich and arrogant. Their lack of enterprise/innovation in farming was mind blowing. Of course there were fine people - particularly among young whites and blacks. I couldn't believe that a country with so much potential could produce a corrupt black ruling class and a little better white one. Its also incredibly beautiful.

Re the Islands. I never said they were down the crapper.

No you didn't. But I was referring to Horus' rejecting them as examples of success. (Maybe he has a thing about midgets )

Perhaps we can agree that they are, measured economically etc., well ahead of many other states....but have/are achieving this by morally dubious means.

Reverting to Mnangagwa....I watched his address in front of the ZANU-PF HQ yesterday.

Not particularly impressive.

He switched from English to Shona at one point and referred to the usual foreign suspects as "barking dogs"....very Mugabean. And chilling.

Well the point of all his killings and Mugabe's was to put the Shona in power - and suppress the other tribes.

An interesting question is whether as new President he dares to travel to any country which may arrest him and send him to the Hague. I imagine a few surviving Matabele (sic) might be asking western governments for some justice for crimes against humanity/genocide. Its not a lot to ask.

Rhodesia/Zimbawbe has friends - Egypt :

“Egypt and Zimbabwe have been sharing “brotherly” relations, according to the FM’s spokesperson statement Wednesday. President Abdel Fatah al -sisi who met with his Zimbabwean counterpart Mugabe on the sidelines of the three African economic blocs (COMESA, SADC, IAC) Conference in 2015.” (said 8 days ago about their brother who is now/was then a political corpse) https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/2/32 ... erspective

With brothers like that suicide might be a moral option or a moral obligation. Backing losers who are obviously on the way out shows poor diplomatic judgment – but consistency for an FM who bets on quite a few dead horses. You wonder about the 'intelligence' coming from Egypt’s world-wide diplomatic corps and from its embassy in Harare. Well don’t wonder – its clear. The Chinese were probably told by Zimbawbe's military head who visited them just prior to the coup what was going to happen and may have given the nod but didn't tell their Egyptian 'brothers'. China is the biggest overseas investor in Z. so I imagine they were told.

The Egyptian FM needs to fire his press liaison staff and get some people with a brain - or at least people who will stay quiet until the situation clarifies.

With regard to the output of the Egyptian government - not just the Foreign Ministry - I don't know whether to laugh or weep.

Probably the latter as they don't appreciate humour, least of all from foreigners within the country.

Update.

It looks like its more akin to a Mafia realignment of power than real change.

1. A new Vice President is Constantino Chiwenga who, like the President, needs to be careful where he travels lest he be arrested in a civilized country for War Crimes or Crimes Against Humanity. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42053753

2. Mugabe needs have now been met. Even the public announcement is extravagant so its fair to assume that the real delivery of benefits is greater than the current Government of Zimbabwe is prepared to admit. What is announced is a fleet of cars and drivers – headed by the most expensive Mercedes Benz, 1st class travel, a mansion, a personal staff of between 19-40 etc. His appalling and evil wife is entitled to most of this following his death. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/robe ... -q6h5csbtl

If It had been a reform/revolution movement both would have been referred to The Hague for criminal offences. The Government of Zimbabwe decided 6 weeks ago to protect him from prosecution – which is odd because it was the citizens of Zimbabwe he betrayed. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ill- ... -rpm5s7l9c

3. An Australian Doco. Its not so good but reflects our involvement with Zimbabwe from the late 70’s and the fact that we have willingly accepted the people Mugabe has thrown out. The doco is interesting is disclosing the low intellect standards of the opposition groups and the fatuous diplomatic representation Australia had in Zimbabwe in the 90’s. Its short and useful in summarizing the key events in the past months. The Australian Broadcasting Commission’s journalist in the region, Sally Sara, is exceptional, she is talented, clear headed and sober in a profession of fools, drunks and disturbed personalities. http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/zimbab ... 759H001S00

A few asides. It’s a bit like Egypt with a dictator trying to give his wife and family power – with the military saying no. Zimbabwe has huge potential, particularly with its people, so even a corrupt and incompetent government should be able to deliver good economic outcomes compared with Mugabe. The west – especially the UK – didn’t see this coming so they need to fire 50-70 staff including all High Commission staff in Harare – as if this will happen. Unemployment is often referred to in the Idiot media as 95% which shows that, if even half true, that Zimbabweans are slaves prepared to accept the unacceptable (and then not protest – because he was removed not by protest but by his army). Its convenient to date his decline from 2000 or the lost election in 2008 but my personal experience is that the evil was clear much earlier – possibly from day one.

The role of the Catholic Church and the Jesuit Order (who educated Mugabe) in the broad matter is confused but possibly dark. The most positive view is that some formal structures of the Church have denounced him in extreme terms for a long time whilst individuals have given him support and advice. Looks like an organization that can’t co-ordinate itself. At the least I would have thought it a good time for a purge and forced retirements – but not on generous benefits. By way of comparison the silence of the various UN agencies over 4 decades and their continued co-operation with Mugabe’s regime is exactly what you would expect.

Egypt’s recent public statements from its Foreign Minister, amidst the November chaos that was clearly Mugabe's death warrant, that Mugabe was a 'close brother' and a 'brother' to President Sisi should now be delivered on in practical terms – if Egypt is continue its foreign policy based on integrity and loyalty. Otherwise people will think that all Egypt’s very small and declining group of friends are worth nothing to it. If you don't deliver to your friends in hard times your friends will think your promises worthless.