Egypt and Space.
Posted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:48 am
Egypt is to join the Space Race (just satellites) launch its own (it currently has 2/3 which were launched by others and are probably (its unclear) managed by them - including (very unclear) their military intelligence and military communications) and get involved in related manufacturing and all the jobs and wealth that comes from this. Can it get any better?
Its to be a new miracle based on high science, good management, truth, careful attention to meticulous detail, value added manufacturing and local skills – what could go wrong. So I thought I’d check it out.
Egypt has is no proven competence in high science or in satellites but the industry will, according to the Minister, grow astronomically, employ many and become equivalent to tourism in contribution to national wealth in just a seven years.
There will also be a lot of debt – what’s new and detail should never deflect from vision. Only anti-patriots ask questions.
The Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research recently said this to MP’s:
1. A satellite will be launched by Egypt (with help from China and Japan) in July 2018
2. 70% of the components of the July 2018 satellite will be ‘manufactured’ in Egypt
3. (Contradictory to the 2018 launch) The local satellite manufacturing capacity “is expected to be complete in the year 2020”.
4. (Specifically) The “satellite’s control unit and three-metre-wide camera will be locally manufactured”. (Not sure these are local areas of proven manufacturing achievements in the very high tech end of the market.)
5. There is to be a new Satellite City built on the Cairo-Suez Road and costing god knows what and paid for by I don’t know who.
6. “in seven years Egypt’s space and satellite technology city will contribute at least 10 percent to the national income,” said Abdel-Ghaffar (the Minister) , adding that “in some countries like England, the space agency contributes 16 percent to GDP.”
11. (vague and unclear) The President will be associated/manage/oversee this great initiative.
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent ... -year.aspx
(In the media report some of the related comments by senior MP’s show gross competence in the field they claim competence in – and misstatement of fact, wild optimism and a belief in silver bullets - or silver satellites)
There is no mention by the Minister of how much this will cost (but we know it will cost a very, very large amount) or how it is to be funded/who the debt is owed to/will government even contribute 10%. equity. The source of the skills to do it is unclear.
The truth is very different. Here are the facts that can be verified – (few local claims about local facts can be verified but facts about the world can).
THE United Kingdom Space Agency (an agency of the UK Government) which should know a little about its own area of responsibility over the decades says that after decades, some of the best science universities in the world, some of the best advanced manufacturing in the world and access to capital and companies wanting to buy satellite time the UK performance is actually minor and a small fraction of what the Egyptian Minister claims.
In summary:
“The industry directly contributed £5.1 billion Gross Value-Added to UK economic output (0.27%of total UK GDP), (not the 16% claimed by the Egyptian Minister so he has overstated it 59 times) and a total of £10.0 billion (including effects on the supply chain) in 2014/15.
Total direct employment in the UK space industry increased at a rate of 6.0% per annum to 38,522 jobs in 2014/15 (0.12% of the total UK workforce), and a total employment supported of 113,866” https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... eport-2016
So the Minister is wrong and overstates easily verifiable facts by 59 times and believes that Egypt can do this right away, and from nothing, and with no background and few local skills – including at a Ministerial level. If he is wrong about such a basic fact can he be wrong about more complex things. If he had correctly stated the facts the rational aspirations of Egypt would be minor - 0.27% of GDP (at best) and hardly worth making much of – let alone connecting the (soon to be up for re-election) President. I think the looming election might be an issue - or maybe getting a few people to bother to vote which was the big problem last time.
There is scant information about the Minister but he is probably in his mid 50’s, a dentist, has never studied outside Egypt but rose quickly to a senior administrative position in Ain Shams University http://www.amcham.org.eg/information-re ... pt-cabinet which rates somewhere in the world in the region of 800-1000th. In emerging economies its somewhere in the region 251-300th. Al Ahram says he headed up Dentistry at Ain Shams from 2014. Little else is known about him – which is nothing odd about the leadership/high corporate figures/senior bureaucrats in Egypt – maybe there are National Security issues.
One of the Minister’s stated priorities is to reverse the ‘brain drain’ and he believes the satellite program might help this. He seems to give little weight to the economic and personal needs of Egyptians with a brain, a set of legs, ambition and a desire to be free. In the al Ahram report one MP states that over 90% of Egyptians with relevant skills have left the country. He gives a very small number - just over 100 of whom very few have stayed - which tells you a lot about the size of the local skill base - microscopic when compared with 38,000 in the UK. The requirement to do it only with Egyptian DNA shows an odd approach to the world not shared my many other countries. In this case who assumes that any western country does its current space program from only local DNA (maybe Brexiteers do). In the case of the USA their 60's space program was substantially based on non-nationals - many former NAZI scientists removed summarily to the USA after the war. What country thinks that doing something it has never done before can/should be done from only nationals. Its an odd, racist/xenophobic (and maybe deeply insecure) approach which says you only do it yourself, exclude 'outsiders' - but if you do it this way there will be doubtful outcomes. If you want to do something new, expensive and risky you get the best people - from wherever.
Maybe 2500 years of foreign invasion/domination have produced twisted attitudes about outsiders?
Over statement/promising by Ministers is not unique to Egypt but usually smart Ministers are cautious to avoid facts that can easily be checked. In Egypt over promising by factors of 5/10/20 isn’t unusual and I wonder why. Here are some possibilities. A general culture which promotes overstatement, a need to win support from an alienated electorate, a need to look big to arouse local respect, really bad/incompetent bureaucratic advice, a complete disregard for the truth, looming elections or a conviction that the local media won’t bother to spend 10 seconds to check. Maybe there is also a conviction that no MP's will contradict you in public - whatever is going on in their mind. Maybe there is no political opposition - and no scientists or academics who will contradict you?
It would be interesting to know whether private conversations with Ministers/officials are quiet and rational and if the 'wind' is just for local consumption. However when you look at speeches in, say the UN, they are very windy and must do little to build trust by the world in the country. Maybe a lot of multinationals stay away for a similar reasons. Is it more than windy rhetoric - a windy mind?
Its to be a new miracle based on high science, good management, truth, careful attention to meticulous detail, value added manufacturing and local skills – what could go wrong. So I thought I’d check it out.
Egypt has is no proven competence in high science or in satellites but the industry will, according to the Minister, grow astronomically, employ many and become equivalent to tourism in contribution to national wealth in just a seven years.
There will also be a lot of debt – what’s new and detail should never deflect from vision. Only anti-patriots ask questions.
The Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research recently said this to MP’s:
1. A satellite will be launched by Egypt (with help from China and Japan) in July 2018
2. 70% of the components of the July 2018 satellite will be ‘manufactured’ in Egypt
3. (Contradictory to the 2018 launch) The local satellite manufacturing capacity “is expected to be complete in the year 2020”.
4. (Specifically) The “satellite’s control unit and three-metre-wide camera will be locally manufactured”. (Not sure these are local areas of proven manufacturing achievements in the very high tech end of the market.)
5. There is to be a new Satellite City built on the Cairo-Suez Road and costing god knows what and paid for by I don’t know who.
6. “in seven years Egypt’s space and satellite technology city will contribute at least 10 percent to the national income,” said Abdel-Ghaffar (the Minister) , adding that “in some countries like England, the space agency contributes 16 percent to GDP.”
11. (vague and unclear) The President will be associated/manage/oversee this great initiative.
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent ... -year.aspx
(In the media report some of the related comments by senior MP’s show gross competence in the field they claim competence in – and misstatement of fact, wild optimism and a belief in silver bullets - or silver satellites)
There is no mention by the Minister of how much this will cost (but we know it will cost a very, very large amount) or how it is to be funded/who the debt is owed to/will government even contribute 10%. equity. The source of the skills to do it is unclear.
The truth is very different. Here are the facts that can be verified – (few local claims about local facts can be verified but facts about the world can).
THE United Kingdom Space Agency (an agency of the UK Government) which should know a little about its own area of responsibility over the decades says that after decades, some of the best science universities in the world, some of the best advanced manufacturing in the world and access to capital and companies wanting to buy satellite time the UK performance is actually minor and a small fraction of what the Egyptian Minister claims.
In summary:
“The industry directly contributed £5.1 billion Gross Value-Added to UK economic output (0.27%of total UK GDP), (not the 16% claimed by the Egyptian Minister so he has overstated it 59 times) and a total of £10.0 billion (including effects on the supply chain) in 2014/15.
Total direct employment in the UK space industry increased at a rate of 6.0% per annum to 38,522 jobs in 2014/15 (0.12% of the total UK workforce), and a total employment supported of 113,866” https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... eport-2016
So the Minister is wrong and overstates easily verifiable facts by 59 times and believes that Egypt can do this right away, and from nothing, and with no background and few local skills – including at a Ministerial level. If he is wrong about such a basic fact can he be wrong about more complex things. If he had correctly stated the facts the rational aspirations of Egypt would be minor - 0.27% of GDP (at best) and hardly worth making much of – let alone connecting the (soon to be up for re-election) President. I think the looming election might be an issue - or maybe getting a few people to bother to vote which was the big problem last time.
There is scant information about the Minister but he is probably in his mid 50’s, a dentist, has never studied outside Egypt but rose quickly to a senior administrative position in Ain Shams University http://www.amcham.org.eg/information-re ... pt-cabinet which rates somewhere in the world in the region of 800-1000th. In emerging economies its somewhere in the region 251-300th. Al Ahram says he headed up Dentistry at Ain Shams from 2014. Little else is known about him – which is nothing odd about the leadership/high corporate figures/senior bureaucrats in Egypt – maybe there are National Security issues.
One of the Minister’s stated priorities is to reverse the ‘brain drain’ and he believes the satellite program might help this. He seems to give little weight to the economic and personal needs of Egyptians with a brain, a set of legs, ambition and a desire to be free. In the al Ahram report one MP states that over 90% of Egyptians with relevant skills have left the country. He gives a very small number - just over 100 of whom very few have stayed - which tells you a lot about the size of the local skill base - microscopic when compared with 38,000 in the UK. The requirement to do it only with Egyptian DNA shows an odd approach to the world not shared my many other countries. In this case who assumes that any western country does its current space program from only local DNA (maybe Brexiteers do). In the case of the USA their 60's space program was substantially based on non-nationals - many former NAZI scientists removed summarily to the USA after the war. What country thinks that doing something it has never done before can/should be done from only nationals. Its an odd, racist/xenophobic (and maybe deeply insecure) approach which says you only do it yourself, exclude 'outsiders' - but if you do it this way there will be doubtful outcomes. If you want to do something new, expensive and risky you get the best people - from wherever.
Maybe 2500 years of foreign invasion/domination have produced twisted attitudes about outsiders?
Over statement/promising by Ministers is not unique to Egypt but usually smart Ministers are cautious to avoid facts that can easily be checked. In Egypt over promising by factors of 5/10/20 isn’t unusual and I wonder why. Here are some possibilities. A general culture which promotes overstatement, a need to win support from an alienated electorate, a need to look big to arouse local respect, really bad/incompetent bureaucratic advice, a complete disregard for the truth, looming elections or a conviction that the local media won’t bother to spend 10 seconds to check. Maybe there is also a conviction that no MP's will contradict you in public - whatever is going on in their mind. Maybe there is no political opposition - and no scientists or academics who will contradict you?
It would be interesting to know whether private conversations with Ministers/officials are quiet and rational and if the 'wind' is just for local consumption. However when you look at speeches in, say the UN, they are very windy and must do little to build trust by the world in the country. Maybe a lot of multinationals stay away for a similar reasons. Is it more than windy rhetoric - a windy mind?