Luxor4u

I've pondered this for sometime, here from NewsNow..

Reasons and reasons:
The fact that the war between these countries is only a matter of time, many analysts with a high degree of confidence declared several years ago. As a matter of fact, it all began in 2011, when the construction of a structure began on the Blue Nile, which, as usual in Africa, has a pompous name and truly grandiose scale – the Great Ethiopian Rebirth Dam (EPWD). To whom – rebirth, and to whom – death. In any case, this is exactly what they say in Egypt, for which this “construction of the century” will mean the loss of not only a fifth of the electricity generated by the Aswan hydroelectric power station, but also no less than 40% of the Nile water, which is critically important for the local agriculture, which is already in deplorable condition.

After all, 90% of the life-giving moisture this country, already having one of the lowest levels of water supply in the world, receives just from the Nile. Ethiopia claims that with the help of the “electrification of the whole country”, its more than one hundred million people will finally be able to escape from poverty.

Theater and the possible course of hostilities: their readiness to use force in the event of Ethiopia’s refusal from this mega-project in Cairo has already been repeatedly declared, as well as its readiness to “fight for the waters of the Nile to the last drop of blood.” The problem is that between the two warring states there is Sudan, which does not at all smile at the prospect of becoming an arena for land battles, or at least a territory for the offensive and retreat of enemy armies.

Egypt wants to win its neighbors over to its side, but so far it has failed. It is precisely because of the stubborn neutrality of the Sudanese that problems may arise with the launching of missile and bomb attacks on the Vozrozhdenie dam, which Cairo has already threatened many times. If Sudan closes its airspace for the Egyptian Air Force (and it most likely will), then a long-range raid on Ethiopia through the Red Sea and Eritrea may well end in failure. Moreover, a successful blow to the dam of the reservoir, which will already be filled (even if only partially), will lead to a colossal catastrophe not only for Ethiopia, but also for Sudan and Egypt. For the latter, first of all, because the water released from all the reservoirs on the Nile will inflict the strongest blow on this particular country.

Interests of Russia: for our country, such prospects are unprofitable, as they say, from any side. Both Egypt and Ethiopia have always been very promising markets for the supply of Soviet and Russian weapons. Today, Cairo is the leader in this matter, but recently Addis Ababa has also been trying to keep up, taking a course of rapidly building up cooperation with our country, not only in the military-technical field, but also in many others. The industrialization and prosperity of Ethiopia will certainly benefit Russia – but not at the cost of hunger in Egypt.

The most unpleasant thing is that if it comes to a military clash, our country will have to choose one of the sides and will inevitably suffer losses in its positions and interests in North Africa and the Middle East. Anyway, who needs another war in this region, where the fighting is going on in Libya, Syria and other places?

Ps: We had grand ideas back in the 1800's of controlling the Nile by sending Scottish engineers there to investigate.
Seems now it's the Chinese (again) who wish to control it..

Not a bad informative read by 'Twiggers...

Who2 wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:18 pm Not a bad informative read by 'Twiggers...

Looks very interesting! Just bought it for my Kindle! Thanks Doc!!

In a rare moment of realism Sisi said recently that Egypt wouldn’t be going to war over the Ethiopian Dam. There’s plenty of jingoism on the streets....as indeed there is for another war with Israel over the Palestine problem....but hard lessons have been learnt.

I presume he figured that even the wild over-estimates of the water loss to Egypt caused by the filling of the Dam reservoir would pale into insignificance at the damage umpteen cubic miles of water would do rushing into Lake Nasser.

He might also have pondered the wisdom of setting Egypt’s mighty armed forces against their puny African neighbours. .....a no-win situation if eve4 I saw one. Their “success” in Sinai can’t have filled him with optimism.

Trump Suspends Aid to Ethiopia Over Dispute on Nile River Dam
Samuel Gebre, Bloomberg News




(Bloomberg) --

The U.S. suspended aid to Ethiopia over its decision to fill a hydropower dam on a tributary of the Nile River without reaching an agreement with Egypt and Sudan on how the reservoir will be managed.

The Trump administration is increasingly concerned about the lack of progress on trilateral negotiations, according to a State Department official who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly about the matter and asked not to be identified. The U.S. government is working with the three countries to facilitate an agreement that balances their interests, the official said.

Egypt, which depends on the Nile for most of its fresh-water needs, is opposed to any development it says will impact the flow downstream -- a position echoed by Sudan. Ethiopia is developing a 6,000-megawatt power plant at the dam, and has asserted a right to use the resource for its development.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

I admit to being as thick as two short planks, but..........surely once the dam is full, then the flow of the Nile will return to normal?

I admit my very thoughts exactly, but then I'm no hydro engineer or egyptian...

Teddyboy wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:37 am I admit to being as thick as two short planks, but..........surely once the dam is full, then the flow of the Nile will return to normal?

I have thought that. The other me is arguing that it might depend on if, or how much, water is syphoned off from the dam for Ethiopian use.
However, neither me understands how these things really work.

HEPZIBAH wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:02 am

Teddyboy wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:37 am I admit to being as thick as two short planks, but..........surely once the dam is full, then the flow of the Nile will return to normal?

I have thought that. The other me is arguing that it might depend on if, or how much, water is syphoned off from the dam for Ethiopian use.
However, neither me understands how these things really work.

Teddyboy is right.....and Ethiopia has no need of water as such. They have other rivers and plenty of rain. The purpose of the Dam is to generate electricity and move Ethiopia out of the dark ages....literally .

The issue is the speed at which the Dam reservoir is filled. If, as the Egyptians fear, it’s done over a very few years, it will have some impact on the Nile flow through Egypt.The engineers on either side can’t seem to reach any agreement on the figures.....which is amazing.

There’s also a “ control” issue. Egypt wants assurance that, in the event of a drought downstream, Ethiopia would release water from the reservoir. Neither Egypt nor Sudan feels comfortable with Ethiopia having sole control of the “tap”.

So far the parties have been unable to agree on a comprehensive treaty to cover all eventualities.

Egypt is heavily dependent on the Nile.....although their own mismanagement of water resources is partly to blame. As ever, the dispute is a convenient distraction for the regime although they do seem to be back-peddling on the more aggressive public demands to bomb the Dam!

I expect some compromise over the rate at which the Dam reservoir is filled will be reached eventually. The danger is of some political miscalculation or rising nationalistic sentiments ( on either side). The US adding its two-penny worth is not likely to be helpful either.

Surely no one in their right minds expects Ethiopia to simply abandon the project and the now- finished Dam?

Who2 wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:59 am I admit my very thoughts exactly, but then I'm no hydro engineer or egyptian...

Or a Politician or an Ethiopian for that matter but, it's all to do with Power and Money that I do know...I'm a Dr.
It's a mad mad World everywhere has been for some time in all honesty..be lucky...

Ps: Dr Cornel West, look him up!

Pss: Ethiopia's military spending/defense budget for 2018 was $0.50B, a 1.3% decline from 2017.
remember those millions people used to talk about ? what ever happened to the 'million pound note ?
'funny old world..

One major factor which I have not seen mentioned but have personally noticed with Lake Nasser. Evaporation! the water flowing in a relatively narrow river is one thing but when it is spread out over a huge lake surface evaporation is dramatically increased. The tide marks on the rocky banks of Lake Nasser show a steadily decreasing water level over the years. Adding another large lake surface to the finite Nile flow will cause greater loss of water to no benefit of the countries down stream.

BBLUX wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:37 pm One major factor which I have not seen mentioned but have personally noticed with Lake Nasser. Evaporation! the water flowing in a relatively narrow river is one thing but when it is spread out over a huge lake surface evaporation is dramatically increased. The tide marks on the rocky banks of Lake Nasser show a steadily decreasing water level over the years. Adding another large lake surface to the finite Nile flow will cause greater loss of water to no benefit of the countries down stream.

Evaporation has, of course , been factored into the calculations of the effects of the Dam....both positive and negative.

You’re right in that evaporation is a major concern with Lake Nasser. The Ethiopian dam being located in cooler uplands is less susceptible and it’s reckoned that water loss will be only 10% of that suffered by Lake Nssser.

Moreover, the possibility of storing water in the Ethiopian reservoir as opposed to Lake Nasser could actually lead to a reduction in overall water loss. The fact that Egypt derives relatively little electricity nowadays from its dam means that the loss of hydro-electric energy can be accommodated.

But again it means Egypt would no longer be master of its water resources and I suspect this is the real reason for the current lack of any binding agreement.

Teddyboy wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:37 am I admit to being as thick as two short planks, but..........surely once the dam is full, then the flow of the Nile will return to normal?

What you say here Teddyboy is quite correct, the Nile will return to normal, but, and this is a BIG but, the new dam is still in development, and to reach its full capacity will take some ten years and of course each year Ethiopia will hold back certain amounts of water, but what will the population of Egypt be then ? This year the rains in Ethiopia have been very strong, so I do not see why Egypt is making such a strong case in 2020.

Egypt, Ethiopia and North Sudan have been in talks about this subject long ago when the idea was first dreamt up in the days of Haile Selassie. Like all things Arabic, they end up in one big talking shop, a bit like the Arab League. Recently these negotiations have involved the African Union of Nations, the EU and the U.N, with no success either way. In recent days President Trump got involved, but that is only because it is suspected that the Chinese has given a loan of $2 Billion, though no proof. The majority of the raised money was paid by nationals and ex-pat Ethiopians and in Ethiopian birr (ETB) currency, to reduce speculation of international interference.

What we have to understand is that Egypt is for ever wanting to increase the full use of its ever diminishing reserves of fresh water that come from a natural decreasing supply. The rediculous Toshka lakes development started in the Mubarak era, and now recently re-started under Sisi, at massive cost and doomed to failure.

Anyone who travels between Asswan and Assuit on the Wester Desert Road ( not the so called super highway) will be familiar with the agricultural roads that link the local towns and cities, soon there will be insufficient high water for the pumps to generate flow to these once desert lands. We should also note that even now Egypt has no national common agricultural policy.

1. The Egyptian army ranks ninth out of 138 armies around the world, while the Ethiopian army ranks 60th.

2. The Egyptian Air Force owns 1,054 assorted military aircraft, including 215 fighter jets, 59 military means of transport, 388 trainers, and 294 military helicopters.

The Ethiopian army has only 86 aircraft, 24 of which are fighter jets, 20 are trainers, nine are transports, 33 are military helicopters and eight are attack helicopters.

3. The Egyptian army has more than 4,000 tanks, 10,000 armored vehicles, 1,000 self-propelled artillery and more than 2,189 field artillery, while the Ethiopian army has 400 tanks and 650 pieces of field artillery.

4. The Egyptian naval fleet includes about 320 marine vessels, including two aircraft carriers, seven corvettes and four submarines, in addition to 50 patrol ships and nine frigates.

Because it is a landlocked country, Ethiopia does not have a naval fleet.

5. The defense budget of the Egyptian army is US$11.2 billion, compared to $350 million for the Ethiopian defense budget.

6. The Egyptian army has about 920,000 soldiers, with 440,000 currently in service and 480,000 in reserve. The Ethiopian army has a total 162,000 soldiers, and no reserve soldiers.


Ps: While inspecting Egypt’s Western Military Zone on Saturday, Sisi said,
“The Egyptian army is strong, and is one of the most powerful armies in the region. But it is a reasonable army, an army that protects and does not threaten, an army that secures and is not the aggressor....

I think you’ll find the relative size of the combatants and their military hardware totally irrelevant.

Even the maddest of Egyptian presidents wouldn’t waste a soldier or tank crossing Sudan and I doubt the Nile is navigable for submarines or aircraft carriers.

I few well placed high explosive bombs would cripple the dam.....but, notwithstanding, Sisi is not going to be so silly.